MAT Q1 2015 update: Three key results and where to find them

So our MAT Q1 2015 update is now live, bringing you the latest insights and analysis on key trends in the global OTC market! To help you navigate the new content more easily I’ve written a short tutorial piece below. This marks the start of an exclusive series where I’ll show you how to incorporate OTC DASHBOARD into your own workflow; whether you’re a recent subscriber or a seasoned user, I hope you find this useful – Regards, Owen Hartnett.

1. The 2015 global sales forecast has been revised from 4.3% to 4.7%

We have increased this year’s sales value projection by 0.4% to reflect the excellent 5.3% recent global upturn, which was driven by a strong cough & cold season in Q1 2015 across a number of important markets (switch and a spike in flu infections being major underlying factors), and the return of key brands like Tylenol in the US. This is the highest growth rate since the 5.5% achieved in the 2009 recession year!

You can view a chart for this at OTC Market Stats > Forecasts, which shows projected year-end MAT value sales up to 10 years ahead. Each forecast vs the 2014 base year is displayed in blue, while the green CAGR line calculates the average year-over-year growth rate. Any market’s forecasts can be accessed using the right-hand navigation panel.

Screen Shot 2015-07-09 at 12.04.04

Quick tip: You can directly print the chart or download it in a range of formats (PNG, JPEG, PDF, SVG) using the button in the top right.

Our 1 and 2-year forecasts are revised on a quarterly basis for the leading global markets. These are generated using a regression-based model taking into account historical sales, macro-economic factors such as GDP and population changes, and industry-specific variables such as switch, regulatory developments and gap analysis. Forecasts are calculated in local currency and converted to US$ at constant exchange rates, inclusive of inflation. The exception to this is Venezuela where we assume there will be significant currency devaluation in the near future and our forecasts are an approximation of real growth.

2. Japan was the only Top 20 OTC market to post a decline

Sales declined here by 3.1% to US$6.9bn in the 12 months to March 2015. This was a result of unfavourable summer weather and a lull in purchasing following the hike in consumption tax in April 2014. Generally a sluggish market, Japan is hindered by poor economic conditions, consumers visiting doctors for reimbursed medicines and a saturated OTC landscape that is dominated by domestic players.

Visit OTC Market Stats > Market Overview for a quick snapshot of Asia-Pacific’s overall performance. Here, you’ll be able to drill down into specific countries of interest, like Japan, using the country list in the central table or navigation panel on the right. You’ll also find further economic indicators such as real GDP growth and OTC per capita spend.

Screen Shot 2015-07-09 at 12.09.47

Quick tip: Click the respective headings to sort the table by OTC market share, growth or alphabetically.

Topline market data is refreshed on a quarterly basis at global, regional and Top 20 country level. For our remaining non-core markets, this is done annually at each full-year update. All sales are expressed at manufacturer’s selling price (MSP).

3. Allergy remedies is now the biggest CCA subcategory in the US

With sales of US$2.2bn (+19.3%), allergy remedies overtook systemic cold & flu to become the leading US cough, cold & allergy subcategory. This was mainly owing to the emergence of a new OTC nasal steroids class, specifically, the switch of Sanofi’s Nasacort Allergy 24HR and GSK’s Flonase, the latter launched early this year. McNeil (J&J) is expected to soon introduce its own offering, Rhinocort Allergy Spray.

Wider CCA performance (+11%) matched growth rates last seen in early 2013, when flu infections reached similar epidemic levels. You can discover more at OTC Market Stats > Category Watch, where you’ll be presented with an initial overview of all major OTC categories; click on one of these interactive charts to launch a pop-up containing key trends, leading brands and graphical representations of the data.

Screen Shot 2015-07-09 at 12.15.09

Quick tip: You can easily switch between downloadable bar and pie chart options using the respective buttons on top.

As with the market topline, category data is updated every quarter for our Top 20 countries, regionally and globally. For our remaining non-core markets, this is done annually at each full-year update. All sales are expressed at MSP.

OTC DASHBOARD is a subscription-only web service powered by Nicholas Hall’s DB6 Global OTC Database. To find out how we can help you to save time, work smarter and keep connected, get in touch with us today at: otcdashboard@NicholasHall.com

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