Nicholas Hall’s Postcard from a Secret Location in Asia: I’ve spent most of this year making Keynote Addresses and Management Presentations on the same theme:
- The CHC industry is growing at an historical 4.5% CAGR by value and only half of that by volume, which is more or less in line with population growth + inflation.
- Although there are important outliers, the core of the market is weak, including the major players if we look at organic growth; in fact the share held by the Top 15 CHC companies is slightly less than 5 years ago, defying the first rule of business, which is that the big usually get bigger.
- Future prospects are modest, and the best we can expect using the current business models is 5.5% CAGR.
- Widening the market definition to include some adjacent categories and e-commerce / multilevel marketing — which we should do and would do if we had reliable data — increases market size by about 50% and nudges growth rates to closer to double digits; the only problem is that most CHC players are either not playing or are weak in these adjacencies.
- Essentially the market has the same shape as when I came into it in 1970 — pills in bottles, creams in tube, pharmacy distribution, and still partly supported by prime-time TV; most of the brands are the same, too, even if many company names have changed.
So I’ve come to a tropical island, sitting under a thatched roof by a palm tree, and I’m scoping the third edition of my New Paradigms report, which was published in 2003 and 2009 and was by our standards a blockbuster. The sub-title is Over the Horizon and this time I will spend most of the report’s 300 pages looking at what the market will be in 2025 and 2030, how we will get there, who will reach the winning post first, and how we can and must adapt strategies if we are to succeed in the intervening years.
This book will look Over the Horizon, but won’t be Pie in the Sky. In my usual forthright manner I will tell subscribers the plain truth, what I think will work, what won’t work and (sometimes) that I don’t know. The emphasis will be on actionable strategies. And to make that realistic, every global licence will have a dedicated 2 hour Webinar to explain key learnings and how it will affect the subscriber’s business prospects, with an option for a full one-day Forensics to go into more depth. I will conduct these Webinars and Forensics in person, just as I will write every word that appears in the report, supported by a talented team of internal and external researchers.
The Table of Contents can be accessed here, but let me identify some key topics
- How to Innovate (at last!)
- The new Adjacencies — obesity, diabetes, the microbiome, sleep, brain health, sexual health, etc.
- The Naturals trend
- Winning in Pharmacy
- The new Emerging Markets — Nigeria, Iran, Bangladesh, etc.
- Future Competition – it’s not who you think!
- Winners & Losers
Publication date is April-May 2019, to incorporate 2018 data, and there are some juicy early-bird discounts to mop up any unspent budget this year. Please call any one of my team for more information, and I’m always available to speak to my key accounts about the scope and deliverables of this far-sighted report.