Forecasts released by Nicholas Hall’s CHC sales database DB6 project that the global retail CHC market is expected to slow to 3.5% in 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Analgesics are expected to increase to 6.1% driven by strong sales of paracetamol-based systemics, while topicals are forecast to slow to 3.3% in spite of the switch of Voltaren in USA
- CCA is projected to be the fastest-growing category with an increase of 6.5% boosted by coronavirus and reports of a high incidence of seasonal cold & flu at the start of 2020
- GIs (+0.4%) and Derma (+0.8%) are expected to remain static as consumers cut back on non-essential purchases amid the tougher economic environment
- Antiseptics & disinfectants are forecast to buck the low-growth trend in derma with a double-digit increase
- Lifestyle CHC sales are predicted to slow to 1.8%, with erectile dysfunction (+13.2%) and sedatives & sleep aids (+7.8%) bright spots in an otherwise challenging category
- VMS sales are expected to maintain growth of 3.4% with anticipated gains in some subcategories — notably vitamins C & D, zinc and immune supplements, offset by a deceleration in some other subcategories
The market is expected to bounce back in the longer term with a forecast CAGR 24/19 of 4.3% and CAGR 29/24 of 4.7% driven by switch, most notably of erectile dysfunction and daily oral contraceptives. CBD is not included in these retail forecasts.
DB6 VP, Celine Waller writes: The Covid-19 pandemic has prompted an unprecedented surge in sales of certain CHC products as consumers have stocked up on essential medicines and sought products to protect their health. However, latest data points suggest that this spike has been short-lived with the market now stabilising and in some cases receding. We expect this trend to continue over the next few months, leading to a slight slowdown in CHC retail sales across 2020 in its entirety, although of course the industry is expected to be far more resilient than many others.
However, this only tells part of the story – as consumers are unwilling or not permitted to leave their homes, we expect an acceleration of the channel shift from bricks & mortar to e-Commerce. CHC sales in the Internet & Mail Order channel are forecast to increase by 22.5% in 2020. This will boost growth of the holistic “all channels” view of the market, which also includes CBD, to 5.0% in 2020 (an improvement on 4.3% in 2019). Internet & Mail Order is expected to account for 19.2% of the total CHC market within next decade, more than doubling its share from 9.4% currently.
We are pleased to announce the latest DB6 market forecasts are now available! With over 150,000 pieces of data across 63 markets, DB6 now includes topline data across all channels of distribution, including e-Commerce! To find out more about our extensive database or to set up a free demo, please contact Kate.Holdcroft@Nicholashall.com.