Sleep disorders on the rise globally

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According to a new in-depth analysis of the global sleep aids market by Nicholas Hall’s Reports, sleeplessness and sleep disorders are on the rise, with approximately one third of the world’s population affected. Many consumers are happy to self-medicate, increasingly opting for a variety of herbal & natural, homeopathic and medical device brands, driving OTC growth in key markets like Brazil and Spain (see sample pages).

In terms of sales, sleep aids & sedatives generate an OTC total of over US$2.3bn globally, but have been characterised by low growth in recent years, and are in need of rejuvenation via new product development, adjacencies or connected health solutions. The self-medication sleep aids market (registered OTCs and a variety of supplements) also suffers from regulatory diversity across markets for common sleep aid ingredients.

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Genuine innovation is thin on the ground, but generics and “me-toos” launch frequently. Adjacencies focused on sleep offer alternatives, with other categories also entering the fray including nighttime analgesics, cough & cold remedies, menopause and other supplements. Connected Health is a key area of expansion. Sleep aid brands partnered with technology – passive (e.g. analysing sleep patterns / providing feedback) or active (improving sleep) – may break the low-growth cycle.

Comment from Ian Crook, Managing Editor, Nicholas Hall’s Reports: Sleep is a health area that lends itself easily to self-medication via sedating antihistamines and herbal & natural ingredients such as melatonin and valerian, while medical devices and digital health focused on sleep are seeing increased investment. With widespread concern over the “sleep loss epidemic” and significant implications for overall health from lack of sleep, it is imperative that consumers have access to tools to help them sleep. Raised levels of stress, anxiety and smartphone / tablet use ensure rising demand that can be tapped into by the right self-care solutions.

The full report, Sleep: Exploring Opportunities for Growth in Sleep Aids & Sedatives, is available now and more details can be found here. To order your copy, please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com

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MAT Q2 2018: 5 Key Trends & Developments

Our latest Q2 2018 trend reports on the OTC market at global, regional and Top 20 level are now available on the OTC DASHBOARD website. Here we highlight some of the key trends & developments that have emerged in the latest data.

  1. Europe and Asia drive CCA upturn: Improving CCA growth helped the global OTC market report a slight upturn in Q2 (+4.2%). This followed a return to CCA growth in Europe (+2.7%) in Q2 2018, powered by the UK (+5.8%) and Germany (+4.1%), while France (+0.5%) also returned to positive territory. CCA growth in Asia-Pacific (+5.7%) likewise improved in Q2, thanks to a clear upturn for Systemic cold & flu (+4.7%), with key markets like S Korea enjoying high growth (+6.6%) on the back of OTC innovations such as the relaunch of Dong-A’s Pantec Q.
  2. Sanofi reclaims the No.3 spot from J&J: While GSK maintains its clear lead as the global OTC No.1 marketer, a tight three-way race remains in play for the No.2 spot between Bayer, Sanofi and J&J. Bayer is still the global No.2, while Sanofi reclaimed its position as the global No.3 in Q2 2018, moving ahead of J&J. In Sanofi’s Q2 results, the company reported a return to OTC growth in Europe and a continued strong rise in Emerging Markets, especially in Latin America. The company reported a CCA upturn in both regions, offsetting US allergy decline.
  3. US market behind VMS upturn: Higher Q2 growth in North America’s vast supplements market (+4.0%) has been the key trend behind the improving global picture. In Q2, multivitamins (+2.8%) underwent a clear upturn while the trend for probiotics (+6.9%) and immune supplements (+10.4%) also improved. The latter category has been a particularly vibrant source of OTC innovation in recent months; for example, Nestle has launched elderberry immune gummies as part of its mykind Organics line, while post-surgery immunity supplements and those with a digestive health crossover have also been popular.
  4. Where’s the growth potential? 1. Adjacencies: OTC marketers are increasingly looking to build new consumer healthcare adjacencies, either via switch – in the case of erectile dysfunction and Pfizer’s Viagra Connect – or new product innovation, in the case of medical cannabis. Canada recently voted to legalise cannabis, though the future for CBD and THC supplements remains uncertain. We don’t yet include sales of medical cannabis products in OTC DASHBOARD, though we do track developments in this category closely in both our innovation database, OTC New Products Tracker, and regulatory newsletter, OTC.NewDirections.
  5. Where’s the growth potential? 2. New territories: Rest of World countries (mainly Middle East & Africa) enjoyed continued high in Q2 2018, with sales up 6.6% in the 12 months to end-June 2018, to total US$9.2bn. High growth for analgesics (+7.2%) and CCA products (+6.7%) ensured a strong regional rise overall, allied with a dynamic performance in the key regional market of Turkey (+13.3%). RB is one marketer performing well in the region, claiming a spot among the Top 5 OTC marketers in Q2 2018, following dynamic growth of its CCA portfolio, powered by sore throat remedy Strepsils and its strong support via A+P and line extensions.

With M&A activity in the CHC industry increasing rapidly, now may be the right time for your business to explore growth opportunities. Our specialist M&A boutique is working with a number of strategic and financial partners to assess potential opportunities — for buyers and sellers — and is well placed to discuss the current business climate and possible synergies. To find out more, please contact ammar.basit@NicholasHall.com

Demand high for cannabis, but its self-care future in Canada is uncertain

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Since Canada’s introduction of the Cannabis Act, which came into force on the stroke of midnight on 17th October 2018, government-operated websites and private retailer portals powered by Shopify are reporting “hundreds of thousands” of orders, according to the company’s VP, Loren Padelford. In addition, long queues have been reportedly forming outside licensed retailers across the country, leading to shortages in some areas.

Canada is now the second country after Uruguay to legalise cannabis for recreational use by adults, who can possess up to 30g of legal cannabis, dried or equivalent in non-dried form in public; share up to 30g with other adults; purchase cannabis products from a provincial or territorial retailer; and grow up to four plants per residence (not per person) for personal use from licensed seeds or seedlings.

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At the same time, however, Health Canada has shut down all possible direct pathways for companies to market any cannabis-derived ingredient for health purposes. This, according to the department, is because the safety (and efficacy) of cannabis “is currently insufficient” once a health claim is added to a product label. This means that all levels of THC and CBD sold without a label claim can be sold to any adult but those with a claim may not.

Health Canada also ruled that all phytocannabinoids will be required to make an application for an Rx-to-OTC switch before consumer health claims could be granted through a further amendment to the Prescription Drug List. Of course, this requires a company to make an application under the New Drug regulations and pay significant fees for the processing the application. Not surprisingly, this decision lands all cannabis health products in the most expensive pathway to market access, likely only affordable to the largest of players.

For an in-depth report on this breaking story, see the forthcoming issue of OTC INSIGHT North America. If you work outside of North America, we also have titles covering Asia, Europe and Latin America. Click here to find out what key features OTC INSIGHT includes! To receive a sample issue or for details of subscription rates, please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com

Human Capital Index: APAC countries lead the way

In 2017, the World Bank announced the Human Capital Project, involving an index that would track the knowledge, skills and health that people accumulate throughout their lives, to enable comparison of this data across countries. The main idea behind the project is to end extreme poverty and prompt investment in people through nutrition, healthcare, quality education, jobs and skills. Last week, the World Bank published its latest report, involving Human Capital Index (HCI) data for 157 countries.

In terms of methodology, the HCI measures three components:

1. Child mortality (probability of survival to age 5)

2. Schooling, i.e. both quality of education (harmonised test scores) and quantity (expected years of school)

3. Health, via two proxies (healthy growth among children under 5, and adult survival rate)

Each of these measures is then tallied up, with a final index score of between 0 and 1 assigned to each country. Leading the way in 2018 are four Asia-Pacific countries with scores of 0.88 (Singapore), 0.84 (South Korea and Japan) and 0.82 (Hong Kong). Below we’ve created a graph of the Top 10 countries globally.

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Various smaller European countries, plus Australia and Canada, make up the rest of the Top 10. Germany (0.79) is just outside the Top 10, with the UK (0.78), Italy (0.77) and France (0.76) not far behind. Various major economies, including the USA (0.76), Russia (0.73), China (0.67), Brazil (0.56) and India (0.44), all rank outside the global Top 20.

For access to the full report and dataset, follow these links: PDF / website.

Less than a week to go until Nicholas Hall’s 5th Asia-Pacific Consumer Healthcare Conference, which will take place in Singapore! You can join Google, McCann Health and GSK, plus many more major players to discuss key issues surrounding the complex APAC landscape. You can view Nicholas’ opening session 09:00-10:00 Wednesday 17th October HERE. The Panel Discussion, “Is the Avalanche of Personal Data Helping or Hindering the Health of our Consumer?”, with Kantar Health, McCann Health, DevHub Startup & Incubation Centre, and BiblioSexual, will take place at 16:30-17:30 on Wednesday 17th HERE. For details of the full agenda, or to reserve your space and join us on 17-18 October, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com without hesitation.

NRF forecasts strong US holiday season sales

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According to a report this week by the National Retail Federation, US holiday retail sales (in November and December, and excluding automobiles, fuel and restaurants) are forecast to increase 4.3-4.8% this year vs the same period in 2017, to total US$717-721bn. This upturn compares to an average annual increase of 3.9% over the past five years.

In 2017, health and personal care store sales accounted for 17.8% of this total (US$59.3bn), a growing share compared to the year before (17.4% share in 2016, or US$56.9bn). If this trend of growing US retail sales in the holiday period – plus a growing share for healthcare sales – continues as forecast in 2018 then OTC marketers active in the US market can expect a strong finish to the year.

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According to NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz: “Last year’s strong results were thanks to growing wages, stronger employment and higher confidence, complemented by anticipation of tax cuts that led consumers to spend more than expected. With this year’s forecast, we continue to see strong momentum from consumers as they do the heavy lifting in supporting our economy. The combination of increased job creation, improved wages, tamed inflation and an increase in net worth all provide the capacity and the confidence to spend.”

NRF’s holiday forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales. The number includes online and other non-store sales.

Explore growth opportunities in the CHC industry with Nicholas Hall’s specialist M&A boutique, which works with a number of strategic and financial partners to assess potential opportunities — for buyers and sellers — and is well placed to discuss the current business climate and possible synergies. To find out more, please contact ammar.basit@NicholasHall.com

Apple Watch Series 4 “first ECG product offered OTC”

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At its autumn keynote event last week, Apple announced upgrades to several of its products, including the Apple Watch Series 4. The smartwatch’s potential as an essential healthcare device is now being more fully realised, with Apple receiving Class II “de novo” FDA clearance for the Apple Watch’s innovative ECG and atrial fibrillation (AFib) features. COO Jeff Williams called Apple Watch Series 4 “the first ECG product offered over-the-counter directly to consumers”, though AliveCor has contested this claim.

One of the announcements that drew the greatest applause at the event was the unveiling of the new ECG app, which can take a reading and provide results in around 30 seconds. Results are derived not just from the second-generation electrical heart sensor in the back crystal of the watch, but also electrodes in the Digital Crown, which must be pressed down by fingertip during the reading. Users are then given a heart rhythm classification, with a normal rhythm classified as “Sinus Rhythm”.

Apple Watch ECG

A new operating system (watchOS 5) also ensures that the new electrical heart sensor intermittently works in the background, notifying users if their heart rate appears to be too high or low, or if there are signs of an irregular heart rhythm, such as those suggestive of AFib. If detected, the new Apple Watch prompts users to “talk to your doctor”, while also ensuring that all recordings, along with associated classifications and any noted symptoms, are stored in the Health app in a PDF that can be shared with health professionals.

Another innovative healthcare feature is Apple Watch Series 4’s ability to detect falls, thanks to it new gyroscope and accelerometer. This hardware allows for analysis of wrist trajectory and impact acceleration – after a fall, an alert is sent to the user, which can be dismissed or used to initiate a call to emergency services. If no movement is sensed for 60 seconds after the alert, the new Apple Watch will automatically call emergency services and send a message along with location to emergency contacts. Such features are likely to broaden the appeal of the Apple Watch among an older demographic, and more importantly have the potential to save lives.

Nicholas Hall will visit the stunning city of Vienna on 2-4 April 2019 to lead our 30th European CHC Conference & Action Workshop! Focusing on the central theme of Keeping Up with the Digital Consumer, this meeting will also feature a workshop from The CHC Training Academy, enabling you to Embrace Digital Transformation. To find out more about this pivotal meeting, early bird booking rates, and sponsorship opportunities, please contact Elizabeth.Bernos@nicholashall.com

 

Bangladesh: Amazon eyeing 2020 entry

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As today’s OTC DASHBOARD hot topic report shows, the e-commerce market in Asia-Pacific is undergoing rapid change, with China passing new e-commerce laws that will take effect in January 2019, while India has also just released draft rules for the online sale of medicines. Amazon also last week unveiled a new Hindi version of its website.

Yet all this upheaval is not isolated to the major markets of India and China. Amazon announced over the weekend that it is planning to begin operations in Bangladesh within the next couple of years, to compete with its arch e-commerce rival Alibaba, which is already present in the country via Daraz. With a population of just over 166mn, Bangladesh is an attractive and fast-developing market.

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According to local reports, however, resistance from local e-commerce players in Bangladesh is likely to be strong. Many are opposed to the government’s new Digital Commerce Policy, which allows foreign companies to have 100% shares in local e-commerce ventures (previously it was capped at 49%).

Key areas of sensitivity will be pricing and investment in the local economy. The e-Commerce Association of Bangladesh (e-Cab) is in favour of protection for local e-commerce companies and is reportedly working on a list of policy recommendations, including foreign firms having to host their websites locally, as well as ensuring 90% of staff are locals and that companies have a logistical presence in the country.

Explore the digital landscape at Nicholas Hall’s upcoming OTC.NewDirections Executive Conference. Other topics on the agenda include Medical Device Regulations, Medical Cannabis, Switch and Smart Probiotics. This will be an inspiring day on 12 September in London, focusing on Where Innovation Meets Regulation. For details of the full agenda or to reserve your place contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com