Stark 2023 growth warning from IMF head

The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund has cautioned that 2023 is going to be a “tough year”, with one-third of the world economy expected to be in recession. The three big economies, USA, EU and China, are slowing simultaneously, translating to negative trends globally. Kristalina Georgieva added in an interview with the CBS News programme Face the Nation that, while USA is most resilient and may avoid recession, the strong labour market is a “mixed blessing” as interest rates could remain tight to lower inflation.

Meanwhile, half of the EU – severely hit by the war in Ukraine – will be in recession this year and China, which in 2022 slowed dramatically because of its zero Covid policy, will slow down further (+4.4% growth in 2023 projected) as the relaxation of restrictions leads to soaring coronavirus cases. Overall, IMF forecasts that Advanced Economies will grow by 1.1% in 2023, while Emerging Market and Developing Economies will rise by 3.7%, led by India (+6.1%) but dragged down by Russia (-2.3%).

When asked what leaves her hopeful, Georgieva said: “I know when we work together, we can overcome the most dramatic challenges. In 2020, the world came together in the face of tremendous threat and was able to overcome this threat. In 2023, we have to do the same.” 

Nicholas Hall Writes: For most of 2022 I wrote in CHC.Newsflash about a market performing surprisingly well, but there was an implicit warning that the party would come to an end one day. Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, has issued a stark warning of tough times ahead economically, but that is light reading compared with Nouriel Roubini’s new book, “Megathreats”, which highlights the 10 trends that imperil our future. Known by some as Dr Doom, Roubini prefers to be known as Dr Realistic, but in my estimation he is Dr Right as he called out many past mistakes with great foresight, including the debt binge that has made the global economy today almost unmanageable.

So how will these megathreats affect Consumer Health? In one sense, we are privileged as healthcare is a must-have category, and self-care will fill part of the vacuum left by the inability of healthcare providers to meet the needs of a growing and demographically-unbalanced population, about which Dr Roubini also writes persuasively. But consumers can only spend the money in their pockets, regardless of whether it is earned or borrowed, which is why I am so concerned about the future of CHC brands and why generics and private labels are now seen as the new growth segment.

I’m also concerned about the viability of retailers and even e-Commerce platforms, as the economic crisis will lower customer footfall and push up costs including the cost of borrowing, forcing thousands of outlets to close. We are already seeing that as a sub-plot of today’s global medicine shortages. Partly this is a story of unpredictable demand caused by the afterwave of the Covid-19 pandemic, but it also seems to me that the supply chain has become very fragile as companies look for ways to cut costs by reducing inventory to breaking point. So our 2023 mission here at the Nicholas Hall Group is to reassess the Strategic Narrative for Consumer Health and offer advice to clients and the industry at large on how to survive mega- and microthreats.

We are pleased to announce that experts from Haleon, Perrigo and PAGB, plus our sponsors Pharmalinea will take the stage alongside Nicholas at our 33rd European CHC Conference! See the all-new agenda here. Taking place in London on 19-21 April 2023, save with the early bird booking discount when you book your place before 19 January! For more information, or for group booking discounts and sponsorship opportunities, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com.

UN: World population to reach 8bn in 2022 and 10bn by 2050

The UN’s World Population Prospects 2022 report predicts that on 15th November 2022 the global population will reach 8bn. The report also shows that India is on course to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. The latest UN projections suggest that the global population could grow to around 8.5bn in 2030 and 9.7bn in 2050, before peaking at around 10.4bn people during the 2080s.

More than half of the projected increase up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. While 2022 is a milestone year, the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen to less than 1% in 2020. As well as fertility, which has dropped markedly in recent decades for many countries, the pandemic has had an effect on population change: global life expectancy at birth fell to 71 years in 2021 (vs 72.9 in 2019).

^{Source: UN World Population Prospects 2022}

Nicholas Hall’s Touchpoints: The UN tells us that the global population will reach 8bn this year. As always, the demographic mix is important and by 2050 the number of over 65’s globally will be more than twice the number of children under the age of five and around the same as those aged under 12. Further reductions in mortality will increase average global longevity to around 77.2 years in 2050. But we don’t have to wait until 2050 to feel the effects of the ageing population, as all countries in the developed world are already experiencing high demand on healthcare services and medical products from a large cohort that expects a high quality of life for an extended period of time. This has been a discussion point throughout my 5 decades in this industry, and Big Pharma seems to defy gravity by always introducing better products at higher prices and sustaining or even growing margins.

But this cannot last, and the recent drive by the FDA to encourage more Rx-to-OTC switches is one of the most important emerging trends in our industry. As my colleague MaryAlice Lawless has written recently, the old switch model just won’t work any more, and the FDA has put the ball firmly in our court to come up with new regulatory and marketing models. That’s why the US switch application for the daily oral contraceptive is so important. Perrigo’s HRA subsidiary is in the forefront of this new category, having launched the first OTC version globally in the UK in 2021.

We are pleased to announce that the all-new agenda for our Asia-Pacific e-Conference has been released! Nicholas will be joined on 23 November by industry experts to explore expanding possibilities for CHC across the region. This event will also include the presentation of our Regional CHC Creative Marketing Award. For more information, or to register, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com.

Bumps in the road for China’s e-Commerce market

China’s e-Commerce market has grown strongly in recent years, but the sector is now navigating more difficult times, with the following developments all reported recently:

• Shares in online platforms such as Alibaba Health and JD Health fell last week following a report in 21st Century Business Herald that the government could ban 3rd-party platforms from selling medicines on the internet. Regulators will reportedly clarify the definition of 3rd-party platforms, which was mentioned in a regulatory proposal last month
• The National Radio & TV Administration and Ministry of Tourism & Culture released new rules on live-streaming events, including the requirement for influencers who discuss topics such as medicine to have relevant qualifications. Live-streaming events have become a prominent promotional tool for CHC marketers, especially during lockdowns when other forms of A+P such as outdoor events and in-store activities have been limited
• JD.com reported growth of 10.3% during this month’s 618 shopping festival (vs the same event in 2021) and sales of RMB379bn (US$57bn); this is JD’s slowest growth rate for 618, which was launched in 2004, and down from the 27.7% upturn reported in 2021. This follows Alibaba reporting its slowest Singles Day growth in November 2021 since the event began in 2009

Source: www.hicom-asia.com

Nicholas Hall’s Touchpoints: Last week we wrote that e-Commerce is essential for the new Haleon, as indeed it is for almost all CHC players. But in our calculations, we have assumed the continued high growth of China’s e-Commerce sector. And yet, the top players like Alibaba (owner of Taobao.com) and JD have been sending out SOS signals, warning of a rapid slowdown of growth, partly I suspect because they are coming increasingly under the thumb of the Government, from whose lofty perch the success or decline of e-Commerce is of very little import.

Now my colleague Nicola Allan, the CHC Insight Asia-Pacific Senior Editor, has reminded me that despite these negative stories, China’s e-Commerce channel is outperforming physical retail, as continued lockdowns drive consumers to shop online. So in one sense perhaps we don’t need to be overly concerned; on the other hand, perhaps we are wise to introduce a note of skepticism into our view of e-Commerce prospects.

According to our latest DB6 forecasts, which were constructed with great rigour only a few weeks ago, the global CHC e-Commerce market in 2031 will be worth US$97.7bn at MSP. But 249% growth between 2021-2031 is heavily dependent on China, which is slated to grow by 333%, and whose share of global is expected to increase from 34% in 2021 to 42% in 2031. Without China, e-Commerce is still a tearaway success with a forecast 205%  growth rate, but will not be in the same league.

The agenda for our Asia-Pacific e-Conference on 23rd November will be released next week! Register with elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com to take a look at the first line-up of participants who will explore expanding possibilities in CHC across the region. Our Regional CHC Creative Marketing Award will also be presented during this event.

Poland approves world-first OTC switch of tadalafil

We continue with the theme of Rx-to-OTC switch this week with news from Poland, where the Office for Registration of Medicinal Products, Medical Devices & Biocidal Products (URPL) has approved Adamed’s Tadalafil MaxOn ED treatment (tadalafil 10mg; film-coated tablets; 2- and 4-count SKUs) as an OTC medicine, effective 1st February 2022. This will join Adamed’s sildenafil options MaxOn Active (25mg) and MaxOn Forte (50mg), which launched in May 2016 and April 2020, respectively. Tadalafil is claimed to get to work within 30 minutes for up to 36 hours, vs claims for sildenafil that it works within 30-60 minutes for up to five hours.

Poland was again one of the most active Rx-to-OTC switch markets in 2021, with only China ahead of it last year in terms of number of launched products reclassified from prescription to OTC status. Three of the six products launched post-switch in Poland in 2021 were erectile dysfunction treatments, including Hasco-Lek’s Mensil Max, Aflofarm’s Inventum Max and Polpharma’s Maxigra Max (all sildenafil 50mg). In addition, there were two digestive health switches – Teva’s antidiarrhoeal Gastrolit and Polpharma’s antacid Famotydyna Ranigast – and Polpharma’s cold sore treatment Heviran Comfort Max.

^{Source: Nicholas Hall’s CHC New Products Tracker}

Nicholas Hall’s Touchpoints: Last week our lead story was the likely switch of HRT in the UK, which we singled out as a pioneer. The latest news this week is from Poland, another switch centre of excellence and where the ED treatment tadalafil will be available in a non-prescription version for the first time anywhere in the world. Tadalafil was launched as a prescription medicine under the trademark Cialis, and Sanofi later acquired the CHC rights from Lilly, but the switch application in the USA has been held up for many years by the FDA.

My colleague Maryna Marriott of the CHC Insight Europe team tells me: “Poland continues to lead the way in switch innovation. The tadalafil approval follows a number of sildenafil 25mg and 50mg switches, with the Polish ED category totalling US$27.7mn in MAT Q3 2021, according to DB6, an increase of 28.5% vs the year-ago period. Men’s health clearly remains high on the consumer health agenda, and it seems likely a number of other tadalafil switches will follow in Poland.”

Switch is an expensive process in the USA, which is why it is subdued there at present. On the other hand, there has been renewed switch activity in Europe and parts of Asia. The problem for the CHC industry has always been that the benefits given to US companies gaining switch status – the cost to the patient-as-consumer drops substantially and there is often three years marketing exclusivity, whereas the ingredient can no longer be prescribed for the same indication – are not available to marketers in the rest of the world. That leads to the curious situation of some switches being regulatory wins but commercial failures. Let’s hope that Adamed is blessed with decent sales for its latest innovation.

Find solutions for success in this competitive CHC landscape with Nicholas and the team in Athens on 4-6 May 2022 for our 32nd European CHC Conference & Action Workshop! Meet with peers and hear from industry experts, including sessions from Bayer, Teva, J&J and many others face-to-face! For more information, or to reserve your seat, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com.

NPD roundup: Women’s Health in 2020

To mark International Women’s Day, our blog this week rounds up some of the most notable women’s health NPD activity in the global CHC market in 2020, with examples from all four major regions (Europe, Asia-Pacific, North America and Latin America), as provided by our CHC New Products Tracker service.

Probiotics & prebiotics was a particularly lively source of women’s health innovation, including Farmoquimica’s late 2020 launch of Simbiofem in Brazil, positioned to balance female intestinal flora and claimed to be the first probiotic in the market for women’s health. In Spain, FertyPharma unveiled Fertybiotic Mujer Plus in early 2020, uniquely positioned to improve the fertility of women with PCOS (polycystic ovarian syndrome), while in South Korea Huons launched Elruby Menolacto Probiotics in Q4 2020, offering the benefit of an original formula to help support menopausal women. In the USA, a particularly innovative women’s health probiotic launch was HUM Private Party, with a unique formulation that combines a proprietary women’s probiotic blend with cranberry extract, which is positioned to support healthy vaginal and urinary tract health.

As for digital health solutions, which are profiled in one of the chapter’s of our upcoming Innovation in CHC report, a notable women’s health development in the UK was Velieve (Healthy.io), an at-home service for women to determine if they have a UTI (urinary tract infection). Velieve was test marketed in London first and is available as a kit (containing a urine collection cup, dipstick and colour board), which is delivered within 3 hours of ordering online, and the user is then required to download the Velieve app to guide them through the test, turning their smartphone into a medical device to read the dipstick.

Finally, looking at VMS, there were also several notable women’s health developments in China in 2020, including GSK’s extension of calcium supplement Caltrate with Caltrate Women, Unilever’s rollout of Olly The Perfect Women’s Multi and Eu Yan Sang’s launch of Gold Label Bak Foong Small Pills (a plant-based formula positioned as a treatment to alleviate menstrual pain).

Seize your last chance to save on our forthcoming report from Nicholas Hall’s CHC New Products Tracker, Innovation in CHC 2021. Putting innovation and NPD activity from 2020 under the microscope, click here to pre-order your copy without delay. For more information, or to place your order, please contact Melissa.Lee@NicholasHall.com

Switch: 2020 Review and 2021 Prospects

According to our CHC New Products Tracker tool, which covers 20 key markets globally, 2020 was a relatively good year for Rx-to-OTC switch activity, not quite at the level of particularly active years like 2018, but above average in terms of switch-related launch developments, and with some notable breakthroughs such as GSK’s switch of Voltaren Arthritis Pain (diclofenac) in the USA and Glenmark’s Momate Rhino Advance Nasal Spray (mometasone + azelastine) switch in Russia.

Thanks to the Rx-to-OTC reclassification of Voltaren Arthritis Pain, as well as eye allergy itch relief range Pataday (Alcon), the US market led the way in terms of switch developments in 2020, along with Poland, Germany and China. As for category switch trends, looking at Tracker data for the past 8 years (2013 to 2020), allergy remedies has been by far the most active OTC subcategory in producing new products following switch activity, with double the amount of NPD activity as the next nearest subcategory, cough remedies.

Looking ahead to 2021, one of the first switch developments this year will again be an allergy remedy. The UK’s Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency granted GSL status to Sanofi’s Allevia tablets for seasonal allergic rhinitis (fexofenadine 120mg; 12+ years; 1 tablet per day) in late December 2020. Once Allevia and other OTC fexofenadine products are launched, they will enjoy mass market distribution from the outset (it is more common in the UK for switched ingredients to be granted pharmacy-only OTC status). This is the second Rx-to-GSL UK allergy remedy switch in as many months, following approval for J&J’s Rhinocort Aqua budesonide 64mcg nasal spray in November 2020 (to be marketed as Benacort Hayfever Relief).

In addition, Poland remains at the forefront of global switch activity, with the country’s medicines agency (URPL) recently approving the Rx-to-OTC switch of Famotydyna Ranigast film-coated tablets (Polpharma; famotidine 20mg). Claimed to relieve indigestion, heartburn and hyperacidity for up to 12 hours, this is the first famotidine option available OTC in Poland. Meanwhile, Australia’s TGA is seeking comments until 27th January 2021 on proposed amendments to the Poisons Standard, which will be discussed at the March 2021 meeting of the Advisory Committee on Medicines Scheduling, including adding the following pharmacist-only medicines to Appendix H to permit consumer advertising: prochlorperazine and metoclopramide for the treatment of nausea associated with migraine; and chloramphenicol for ophthalmic use.

We are delighted to announce that our annual European e-Conference 2021 will take place online on 28 & 29 April! With options for individual and corporate site or global access, take the chance to keep up with what’s happening in consumer healthcare today and contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com

Digital strategy: Examples from China

In Sanofi’s recent Q3 earnings call, new head of Consumer Healthcare Julie Van Ongevalle said the company’s CH operation had “untapped potential”, and that her previous experience in the beauty industry would help with the strategy of leveraging consumer insights and maximising the digital and e-Commerce channel. In this week’s blog, we summarise three examples of innovative digital strategies by three companies (Alibaba, GSK and Bayer) operating in China.

Alibaba has kicked off its 11.11 Global Shopping Festival with new features to meet rapidly-changing consumer needs. These include the participation of Alipay’s digital lifestyle platform, broader consumer reach, as well as livestreaming technology creating more engagement for Chinese consumers, and with the largest international presence to date. A new sales window will be added from 1st-3rd November, ahead of the main event on 11th November, to provide merchants – specifically new brands and small businesses – the opportunity to showcase their products and tell their brand stories amid the pandemic. For many brands, 11.11 is the single biggest growth driver. This year, more than 2mn new products will be introduced, double the amount compared to last year.

OTC marketers are also building ties with local digital shopping platforms in China. GSK CH and Dingdang Kuaiyao have agreed a new strategic co-operation, which will utilise their R&D and data capabilities to drive growth and improve consumer access to healthcare products. Initially, the companies will focus on the concept of “Internet + Medicine” and work together to build brands and content, as well as consumer traffic and experiences. In 2021, the collaboration will cover brand awareness, global marketing, consumer trust and consumption scenarios. The news comes a month after GSK CH became an Alibaba “digital captain” after agreeing a joint business plan with its marketing technology platform, Alimama.

In addition, under a strategic co-operation agreement with digital shopping platform Meituan, Bayer CH aims to become a full-service healthcare solutions provider to help individuals better manage their own health. The businesses will work with 20+ chain pharmacies to integrate online and offline healthcare products and services by exploring digitalisation options, expanding consumer services and developing a new era of pharmaceutical retail. The co-operation aims to reach consumers more efficiently under the “new normal”, which has resulted in growing public awareness of healthcare issues, rising demand for healthcare products and a change in consumption habits, with online purchasing increasing significantly.

We are pleased to announce the next round of savings in our special Q4 promotional event, running until the end of the year! Plus, for November only we are offering a 25% discount on annual subscription rates for our combined CHC.Newsflash and CHC.NewDirections news service! If you would like additional information on any of our publications or subscriptions, or would like to place an order, please contact Melissa.Lee@NicholasHall.com

Market Movers in MAT Q2 2020

To mark the publication of our latest Market Movers update, which picks out 6 brands driving growth in the global CHC market in the MAT Q2 2020 period, as well as 6 brands in fast decline, our blog this week examines the trends that are driving these exceptional changes.

Among the fastest-growing brands, one common thread is immunity positioning, with at least four of the six products highlighted below – Dabur Chyawanprash (India), Yiling Lianhua Qingwen (China), Airborne (USA) and Arbidol (Russia) – boosted by heightened demand for products that boost immunity during the pandemic.

TCM Yiling Lianhua Qingwen, available in China as capsules and granules, was listed in 2020 in the country’s Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Scheme, while in April 2020, the National Medical Products Administration of China approved a new indication for “mild and common Covid-19” to be added on the basis of its originally approved indications. Sales for the brand in the MAT Q2 2020 period were up 68%.

Ayurvedic formulation Dabur Chyawanprash (Dabur) saw sales more than double (+169%) in MAT Q2 2020, driven by strong Covid-related demand and the launch of Dabur Immunity Kit in Q2 2020, to become India’s No.1 CHC brand. Likewise, umifenovir-based medicine Arbidol (OTCPharm), which is positioned for flu as well as acute respiratory and viral infections, also saw sales more than double (+103%) in the MAT Q2 2020 period and the brand now ranks in the Top 5 in Russia.

As for products that suffered falling sales in MAT Q2 2020, notable examples were tonics & cure alls in China – such as Dong-e E-Jiao – hit by rising raw material costs and falling demand, as well as ranitidine-based antacids – such as Sanofi’s Zantac 150 – owing to concerns around NDMA and Takeda’s Alinamin EX vitamin B supplement in Japan, affected by demographic changes and a fall in tourist spending.

If you would like to review the latest launches and NPD surrounding all the leading brands in the global CHC market, take a look at CHC New Products Tracker, the ultimate competitive intelligence tool! Featuring 26,000+ launches and innovations, products are graded with a star rating, and you can search according to your specific requirements. Please contact waisan.lee@NicholasHall.com to set up your demo.

CHC market shows resilience in Q2 2020

In the 12 months to end-June 2020, the global retail CHC market grew by 4.6%. This marked a slowdown vs MAT Q1 (+5.6%), but Celine Waller, Group VP, DB6, said “the market has remained far more resilient than many expected”. A boom in prevention categories such as antiseptics & disinfectants (+38.7%) and immune supplements (+38.6%) has helped to mitigate the effect of “pantry unloading” following consumer stockpiling in Q1, while strong US growth in Q2 offset weaker performances in China and Western Europe.

Western Europe decelerated to 1.2% triggered principally by a decline in CCA as lockdowns and increased hygiene measures resulted in reduced incidence of respiratory pathologies. Low growth in Germany (+1.5%) and the UK (+1.9%) offset moderate declines in Italy (-0.8%) and France (-1.3%).

Asia-Pacific slowed to 2.7% hindered by a weak performance in China and declines in both Japan (-2.9%) and Australia (-1.3%) caused by loss of revenue from Chinese travellers. However, India was up 11.3% driven by chyawanprash, which more than doubled thanks to its immunity positioning.

North America posted a 6.4% upturn with strong US growth spearheaded by VMS (+8.8%) and Derma (+8.4%) – the latter boosted by a doubling in sales of antiseptics & disinfectants.

Central & Eastern Europe achieved growth of 8.6% with inflation-driven growth in Russia (+10.9%) offset by a comparatively weak performance in Poland (+5.2%), while the Middle & East Africa experienced a slight slowdown (+6.9%).

Latin America grew by 11.8% with both Brazil (+12.0%) and Mexico (+11.0%) up by double digits. VMS was the key contributor growing by 16.7% in the region.

We are pleased to announce Nicholas Hall’s Asia-Pacific webinar, which will be held on 12 November! Nicholas will be joined by several regional industry experts to explore key trends in the region, including a look at regional WOW! brands, growth prospects, distribution and much more. For further details, or to register, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com.

Focus on Japan: Q2 results point to further CHC decline

According to government data released today, GDP in Japan fell 7.8% quarter on quarter in Q2 2020 (April to June), with Covid-19 having an impact both on domestic consumer spending and exports. Japan’s economy is heavily dependent on exports, especially to China, and demand there has remained subdued during Q2. This downturn does not bode well for the world’s No.3 CHC market, which had already failed to match the boost in OTC spending seen in Europe and North America in Q1, with Japan recording flat sales in MAT Q1 2020 owing to the loss of in-bound tourists from China and Taiwan.

Japan’s OTC market has not outperformed the wider economy, as has been the case in other regions during Covid-19, with several key local marketers reporting Q2 declines in line or in excess of Japan’s 7.8% GDP fall. Daiichi Sankyo saw OTC revenues decrease by 7.3% in fiscal Q1 2020 (Apr-Jun 2020), owing to the impact of Covid-19, while Taisho reported an even more dramatic fall in its Q2 domestic Self-Medication sales, with its OTC portfolio in Japan down 16.4% in fiscal Q1 2020 (Apr-Jun 2020). Tonic drink Lipovitan and CCA range Pabron both led the decline, impacted by Covid-19.

Takeda outlined size of OTC divestitures still to come

While Takeda no longer reports on the performance of its Self-Medication business in its quarterly results, it did reveal in its Q2 results presentation the value of the various regional portfolios of non-core and OTC products that it plans to divest in the near future. In late 2019, Takeda sold a portfolio of non-core OTC and Rx products to Swiss-based Acino, covering what the describes as its North Europe, Middle East & Africa (NEMEA) region, as well as a larger portfolio to Stada, covering Russia / CIS. Takeda now intends to complete even larger divestments in Latin America and Europe.

In late July, it was announced that Taisho is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Takeda’s Consumer Healthcare unit in Japan, according to people familiar with the matter. Blackstone, Bain Capital and CVC Capital Partners were also understood to be among the final bidders. If Taisho does secure the deal for Takeda’s CHC portolio in Japan – which DB6 valued at US$571mn in the MAT Q1 2020 period – it will extend its domestic dominance as Japan’s No.1 CHC marketer but still remain the global No.7 behind P&G. Either way, Taisho will be looking to move beyond the business uncertainty caused by Covid-19 and M&A, with a view to reviving growth in Japan’s CHC market in H2 2020.

If you are interested in making an acquisition, or need licensing or business development support, Nicholas Hall’s Consultancy team is available to give confidential advice. We work with a number of strategic and financial partners to evaluate potential opportunities for buyers and sellers in the M&A, licensing and fundraising space. To find out more contact kayleigh.griffinhooper@NicholasHall.com