e-Commerce Ascential for GSK Consumer

UK-based Ascential Digital Commerce and GSK Consumer Healthcare (soon to become Haleon) will next week launch Ascential Digital Commerce Connect at the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity. The data-rich digital commerce platform provides clarity about GSK CH e-Commerce brand performance and improves reaction time to market dynamics in the rapidly growing e-Commerce market. The Connect platform analyses, visualises and displays marketing data about each brand and competitor to monitor key activities and answer marketers’ key questions when it comes to:

• Understanding the current brand / sales performance in the e-Commerce marketplace – standalone vs key competitors and owned channels vs major online retailers like Amazon and Alibaba
• Dissecting what brand health looks like regionally throughout EMEA, USA / N America, Asia-Pacific & Latin America
• Navigating potential challenges and outages around supply chain, R&D, disruptive markets and other key metrics
• More accurately calculating marketing spending as a percentage of gross revenue

GSK CH expects that e-Commerce growth will reach the mid-teens percentage of the business by 2025, making it a priority channel to drive overall sales.

Nicholas Hall’s Touchpoints: Duncan Painter, the CEO of Ascential, is right when he says: “The next five years represent a tipping point in the retail industry. Retailers and brands with the deepest, most recent insights into the digital performance of their products and services will gain an informed, competitive edge.” There is an insatiable demand for e-Commerce data in the consumer healthcare market, and I’ve just signed off on a very substantial budget – at least by our standards – to buy in and provide improved e-Comms data to our client base, which I am very pleased to say for the first time ever now includes all six of the top CHC players.

e-Commerce accounted for 14% of all CHC sales in 2021 and this share is forecast to exactly double in the next decade, with a higher achievement in Asia, especially China. Some analysts are even more bullish – one we’ve looked at and rejected put e-Comms so high that the only outcome would be the complete collapse of the store retailer sector, and surely that is not going to happen! Indeed, we hear numerous reports of a revival of consumer interest in the physical shopping experience. Nevertheless, e-Commerce is part of the Future Resumed, as we now call the New Paradigm for CHC, but in a subtle omni-mix of physical and digital shopping that offers the maximum flexibility and choice to consumers wishing to self-medicate.

Stay tuned for the first edition of the agenda for our Asia-Pacific e-Conference, to be hosted by Nicholas and the team on 23 November! As well as exploring expanding possibilities in CHC within the region, this event will also include the presentation of our Regional CHC Creative Marketing Award. For more information, or to register, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com.

Retail CHC growth accelerates to 4.8% in 2021

Below we look at the regional trends from the just published DB6 data on the performance of the global CHC market in 2021, showing how an upturn in Asia-Pacific helped global growth accelerate to 4.8% in the full-year period.

Europe (+3.3%) was the slowest growing region globally, although this does reflect an upturn vs 2020, thanks to robust growth in gastrointestinals (+6.1%) and a return to growth for cough, cold & allergy (+2.4%). Largest market Germany (-0.6%) saw its decline soften, while other Big 5 Western European markets rebounded to growth. Notably, Russia has fallen down the rankings from No.2 to No.4 in Europe, largely driven by devaluation of the Rouble, coupled with a flat year-end result (+1.8%)

Asia-Pacific (+5.6%) had a buoyant performance vs 2020, attributed to advances in largest market China (+6.9%) and a softening decline for No.2 ranked Japan (-1.2%), these markets have a combined share of almost 70% of total regional sales. Sales in China have rebounded somewhat, as harsh Covid restrictions generated a relatively weak 2020 comparator. Despite intermittent restrictions continuing, a relatively free environment has boosted sales across most major categories as consumers seek to remedy all ailments.

Americas (+4.9%) saw a slowdown vs 2020; the US market (+3.9%) has gained momentum throughout the year – finishing well, albeit slower than 2020 – thanks to a robust cough cold & allergy uptick (+6.5%) and notable increases in Lifestyle CHC (+10.8%) and gastrointestinals (+8.9%), more than offsetting the slowdown in VMS and decline in dermatologicals.

In Latin America, leading market Brazil (+11.7%) advanced thanks to double-digit increases in VMS (+16.2%), cough, cold & allergy (+11.6%) and Lifestyle CHC (+11%).

Only one month to go until our 32nd European CHC Conference & CHC Training Academy Workshop! Taking place in Athens on 4-6 May 2022, industry experts from GSK, J&J, Menarini, NielsenIQ and more will explore how as an industry we can move forward with CHC Innovation! Please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com to reserve your place.

Global CHC market +2.6% in MAT Q3 2021

The latest update from Nicholas Hall’s CHC database, DB6, shows that in MAT Q3 2021, the store retail CHC market advanced by 2.6%, a continued improvement over results seen throughout the year (vs -0.6% and +1.7% for MAT Q1 and Q2 respectively).

• Vitamins, Minerals & Supplements (+6.1%) maintains its position as the fastest-growing category, albeit at a slightly slower rate. Stabilising immune-associated segments still contribute to a healthy topline performance as consumers continue to bolster natural defences; this, coupled with improvements in other subcategories (notably a return to growth for probiotics) has helped to keep the largest major category buoyant

• Lifestyle CHC growth advanced to +5.9%, with eye care — the largest subcategory — returning a mid-single digit increase (+5.4%); this, alongside sustained double-digit increases in sedatives & sleep aids (+13.8%), as well as smaller categories such as emergency hormonal contraception and erectile dysfunction, boosted the topline

• Gastrointestinals growth improved (+5.2%) with all subcategories once again seeing an upturn over the previous reporting period — a return to some “normalisation of life” (travel, dining out, etc.) has helped the wider category advance

• Analgesics saw a further improvement overall (+3.6%) boosted by systemics returning to growth (+1.9%) after successive negative results, as well as consistent gains in topical formats (+7.2%)

• Dermatologicals slowed further to +0.6% (vs +3.9% MAT Q2 21), a trend heavily impacted by the performance of antiseptics & disinfectants — the subcategory now declining by 9.8% following high growth levels seen in the peak of the pandemic

• Cough, Cold & Allergy remains negative, with sales retracting by 5.3% in the 12 months to end-Sept 21. However, the macro trend continues to improve over the previous reporting periods (-14.5% and -9.7% for MAT Q1 and Q2 respectively) as incidence of typical seasonal pathologies rises vs a low comparator in 2020, with many players reporting improvements in quarterly terms

In terms of geographies:

• Americas advanced by 2.4% (vs +1.3% MAT Q2 21) – N America now displaying a positive trend with continued improvements in USA & Canada. LatAm markets remain strong, with another double-digit result in Brazil (+12.1%), the most robust of the Top 20 markets

• Asia held on to mid-level growth (+4.8%) in the reporting period; while the region continues to be impacted by loss of revenue from overseas visitors in key markets Japan (-2.1%) and Australia (-2.9%), steady single-digit increases in China and India helped to maintain the topline

• Europe’s performance has flattened; Western European markets are improving (-2.0% vs -4.4% MAT Q2 21), impacted by the analgesics growth trend returning to positive, plus a softening decline for CCA over the previous reporting period. CEE markets advanced further, aided by mid-single-digit gains in Poland (+4.8%)

Nicholas Hall commented: Good news! My colleague Kayleigh Griffin-Hooper tells me that the latest DB6 data show that the store retail CHC market continued on a path to recovery in the 12 months to end-September. Broadly speaking, the majority of markets are returning to slightly stronger growth – or softer declines – compared to MAT Q2. Trends remain heavily influenced by the impact of Covid-19 across several healthcare segments – both positively and negatively – resulting in low level advances on a global level.

In three months’ time, when we have sales data for the Internet channel, it will be interesting to see whether this high-growth sector fully balances the softness in store retail sales.

We are pleased to announce that Nicholas Hall’s DB6 MAT Q3 2021 update is now available! Subscribers can access over 150,000 pieces of data, with more than 30,000 records covering 13,000+ brands and 3,000 companies across 63 countries. To find out more, or to set up a free demo, please contact kate.holdcroft@NicholasHall.com.

MAT Q2 2021: Global CHC Market Trends

The latest update from Nicholas Hall’s CHC database DB6 indicates that in MAT Q2 2021, the retail (bricks & mortar) CHC market returned to growth following a decline in the previous reporting period – the first seen since DB6 records began. Overall global CHC sales were up 1.7% to US$151bn.

In terms of performance by geography, the Americas returned to positive growth (+1.3%), with a flat performance in North America bolstered by LatAm markets, including double-digit growth in Brazil (+10.6%). USA remains the clear No.1 CHC market globally, and grew modestly (+0.2%).

Asia-Pacific was the best performing region (+4.8%); while it continues to be impacted by loss of revenue from overseas visitors in key markets Japan (-4.0%) and Australia (-5.5%), high single-digit increases in China and India helped to lift the topline.

^{Source: Nicholas Hall’s global CHC sales database DB6 (all values at MSP).}

Europe continues to decline (-2.0%), still heavily impacted by retraction in CCA and analgesics in Western Europe in particular. Key markets Germany (-8.5%) and UK (-10.8%) fell significantly, although this was partly offset by a positive trend in C&E Europe (+3.6%), with Russia maintaining mid-single digit increase (+4.1%) and Poland returning to growth after a decline in the previous reporting period.

Nicholas Hall Writes: “In 2020 we saw the market grow across the board during the first half, ease back in the second half, perform very badly in Q1 this year and return to growth in Q2. Is this a trend? Is it as simple as drawing the line forward to the point where we regain the pre-pandemic 3.7% retail sector growth rate? We all have our own point of view, but it would be a brave soul prepared to make a firm prediction. So in the best tradition of being a thrusting brand manager, I’m going to hedge my bets until I see the Q3 figures from DB6.“

We are pleased to announce that Nicholas Hall’s DB6 mid-year update for 2021 is now available! Subscribers can access over 150,000 pieces of data, with more than 30,000 records covering 13,000+ brands and 3,000 companies across 63 countries. To find out more or to set up a free demo, please contact kate.holdcroft@NicholasHall.com.

MAT Q1 2021: Global CHC sales fall 0.6%

According to Nicholas Hall’s global sales database DB6, the retail (bricks & mortar) CHC market generated global sales of US$148bn, down by -0.6% versus a year ago. Further heavy decline for cough, cold & allergy (-14.5%), especially in North America and Western Europe, was largely responsible for the global fall in CHC sales. The Americas declined by -0.4%, driven by a -1.9% fall in North America, but slightly offset by a positive performance by LatAm markets (+8.5%), notably double-digit growth in Brazil (+10.6%).

Asia remained relatively weak (+2.6%); despite strong growth in China (+7.1%), the region continues to be impacted by loss of revenue from overseas visitors in key markets Japan (-9.1%) and Australia (-8.0%). Europe saw a significant downturn (-5.5%), heavily impacted by declines in CCA and analgesics in Western Europe. Key markets Germany (-13.3%) and UK (-13.9%) fell by double-digits during the MAT Q1 2021 period. In C&E Europe, meanwhile, Russia continued to post a positive performance (+4.1%), albeit at a slower rate than year-end.

As for global performance by major category, vitamins, minerals & supplements (+5.3%) remained the fastest-growing category – albeit at a slower rate than year-end 2020 – with immune-associated categories continuing to benefit from greater consumer focus on wellness maintenance and protection. Dermatologicals increased by +4.5%, its buoyancy largely attributed to the performance of antiseptics & disinfectants (+53.1%) during the pandemic. Lifestyle CHC grew by +2.4%, driven by double-digit increases in sedatives & sleep aids (+14.5%) as well as smaller categories such as obesity treatments, emergency hormonal contraception and erectile dysfunction.

Gastrointestinals returned a low level increase (+1.2%), while analgesics saw a decline of -1.8% globally, with systemics down -4.3%, largely owing to the effects of pantry loading at the start of the pandemic. Cough, cold & allergy saw the strongest decline, with sales falling by -14.5% in the 12 months to end March. Pantry loading, as well as the effects of lockdown restrictions, social distancing, mask wearing and hygiene measures resulted in significantly reduced incidence of respiratory pathologies.

At a time when consumers are highly aware of the importance of maintaining their immune system, we are pleased to announce that Immunity will be the focus of our next hot topic report! We will review a number of categories including antivirals, immune supplements and vitamins C & D and explore the latest launch activity, plus much more. To pre-order your copy and save with the pre-publication discount, or to find out more, please contact Melissa.Lee@NicholasHall.com.

CCA down, but mental wellness products boom

Global CHC market sales in bricks & mortar outlets totalled US$150bn in 2020, with growth decelerating to 3.3%. Categories that were hardest hit by the slowdown were concentrated among CCA (notably cough and sore throat remedies) and Dermatologicals (such as lip care, cold sore and head lice treatments), as a result of social distancing guidelines. However, there were some notable sales successes in 2020, including sedatives & sleep aids and herbal memory & brain health supplements.

As we wrote in the latest issue of CHC.NewDirections: “Sleep quality has deteriorated as the Covid-19 pandemic has progressed, according to the ongoing University College London Covid-19 Social Study. Of the more than 70,000 participants, 12.7% reported “very good” sleep quality in March 2020 vs only 7.7% in March 2021. The number of people who said their sleep quality was “very poor” increased from 5.4% (Autumn 2020) to 10.1% at the start of the New Year.”

CIMA Market Analyst, Sacha Hawker, notes that this increase in sleep disturbance has been accompanied by a rise in sleep-related apps and devices in recent years, creating even more crossover between technology and consumer healthcare. And globally, there have been more than 160 new products with a mental wellness positioning since the pandemic began in December 2019 (Source: Nicholas Hall’s CHC New Products Tracker). With lockdown measures still in place alongside other stress factors, we expect this trend to continue.

_{Four notable 2020 sleep device launches from our Innovation in CHC report:
Withings Analyzer (Europe), SleepCheck (Australia), Sunrise (UK) and CoolDrift Versa (USA)}

Commenting on the DB6 results, Nicholas Hall said: So there it is! Finally, the 2020 growth rate was somewhat lower than expected at 5% (all channels of distribution), more or less in line with the five years before the Covid outbreak. But within the market there has been radical change, and the stable overall growth rate cannot disguise the weakness of the cough & cold market – much worse than expected – and indeed of the whole retail sector. At the moment we are working on the short-term and long-term forecasts for the new edition of DB6, and there are puzzled frowns and long faces among the forecasting team.

So where do we look for rays of sunshine? As my colleague Celine Waller writes, anything connected with immunity and disinfection and e-Commerce is having a fine time, and the expectation is that this boom will carry over for two or three more years. And she points to sedatives & sleep aids among the rock stars with a 13% growth rate. This ties in perfectly with earlier predictions made during a webinar given by Jennifer Cooper and I a month ago. If you haven’t listened to the recording of that webinar, I strongly advise you to do so (link here).

Only two weeks to go until our European e-Conference 2021! Register now to explore e-Commerce and other major trends impacting CHC on 28-29 April with Nicholas Hall and a panel of industry experts. For a look at the full agenda, please click here To book your place at our European e-Conference, or to find out more about our other webinars, please contact Elizabeth.Bernos@NicholasHall.com

MAT Q3 Update: Category, country performances

Assessing the latest data on the performance of the global CHC market in MAT Q3 2020, Celine Waller, Group VP, DB6, wrote: “Covid-19 continues to have a seismic effect on the CHC market, although the impact of the pandemic differs depending on the category and geography. However, in totality the market has continued to outperform expectations with the increased focus on maintaining health & wellness providing a welcome boost to the industry.”

Vitamins, minerals & supplements (+6.0%) was the fastest-growing major category in MAT Q3, benefiting from the greater focus on wellness, with products connected to immunity particularly dynamic – overall, immune supplement sales rose by 47% globally. This trend was particularly noticeable in the world’s No.1 CHC market, USA, where immune supplements, as well as zinc and vitamin C supplements, all recorded exceptional growth.

Dermatologicals also performed well, increasing by 5.9% thanks to a surge in demand for antiseptics & disinfectants, which grew by 51% globally, owing to RB’s Dettol making big gains in key markets like China, and various successful launches in the USA. Meanwhile, analgesics achieved growth of 5.0% thanks to the strong performance of systemics (+5.9%), powered by the continued dynamism of global No.2 CHC brand Tylenol (J&J). Topicals mustered growth of only 3.2% in spite of the US switch of GSK’s Voltaren Arthritis Pain.

Cough, cold & allergy (+2.2%) was the weakest category globally in MAT Q3 2020, as social distancing and increased hygiene measures resulted in reduced incidence of respiratory pathologies. Declining sales for cough & cold remedies across western Europe, most noticeably in Germany and France, was the primary factor for the poor performance of these markets in MAT Q3 2020.

Gastrointestinals also produced low growth, with global sales increasing by just 2.8%, after a flat performance in western Europe and falling sales in Japan. In fact, heavy decline for GIs and OTC tonic drinks were two key factors behind the 5.1% fall in Japan’s CHC market. Liver & bile remedies (+5.2%) was the only GIs subcategory to achieve growth of more than 5% globally, powered by a double-digit rise in China.

Sales of Lifestyle CHC products expanded by 3.7%, a further deceleration in Q3, despite double-digit growth for sedatives & sleep aids and obesity treatments. A slowdown in sales of eye care treatments and a drop-off in Rx-to-OTC switch activity are two of the primary factors for this deceleration globally, though one exception is erectile dysfunction, which grew by double digits powered by OTC switches in the UK and Poland.

We are pleased to announce the latest DB6 MAT Q3 data is now available! With over 150,000 pieces of data across 63 markets, DB6 now includes topline data across all channels of distribution, including e-Commerce! To find out more about our extensive database or to set up a free demo, please contact kate.holdcroft@NicholasHall.com.

OECD: Covid’s impact on e-Commerce

A new report published last month by the OECD, entitled e-Commerce in the time of COVID-19, explores how the pandemic has caused an expansion of e-Commerce towards “new firms, customers and types of products, likely involving a long-term shift of e-Commerce transactions from luxury goods and services to everyday necessities”. Below we pick out some of the highlights that relate to medicines.

In the opening summary, the OECD says that, “while e-Commerce in the past for many consumer groups was centred on high tech goods, toys or books, it now increasingly involves goods for which availability is critical to a large share of the population, including groceries, medicine and other necessities.” There were two examples given by the OECD from Brazil and Germany showing how e-Commerce has disrupted the medicines market.

In Brazil, “around 54% of Internet users had bought food or food products over the Internet in 2020, substantially up from only 22% in 2018. Significant increases were also observed for cosmetics, toiletries and medicines. As convenience has always been one of the key drivers of e-Commerce participation, it is likely that many of the new users will keep ordering at least some goods online in the future.”

As for Germany, “online sales grew significantly for medicines and groceries, historically laggard sectors in terms of e-Commerce, while overall online sales contracted by around 18% in March 2020 in comparison to the previous year.” The OECD report also highlighted the impact of Covid-19 on e-Commerce’s share of total retail sales in the UK, USA and EU.

Writing in last Friday’s CHC.Newsflash, Nicholas Hall said: “Let’s take the best case point-of-view, that the incidence of Covid-19 will shrink dramatically during the middle of 2021, with a significantly lower death rate. How do we get back to normal? Will personal and professional life pick up where it left off? I doubt that very much. It seems to me that, at the very least, working from home is here to stay, which could mean the revival of suburban shopping, with lower footfall in city centres and out-of-town shopping malls. One impact on consumer health could be a marked revival in community pharmacy and online purchases growing from 9% to 19% of total CHC sales globally in the next 10 years, and from 11% to 27% in Asia. Another fascinating statistic courtesy of Eurostat is that, uniquely, the over-55 cohort is the largest purchasing group for medicines online, which runs counter to the theory that digital equals youth.“

Don’t miss out on the chance to save up to 50% on selected reports with our Q4 promotional event, which will run until the end of the year! Stay tuned for new deals coming in December! To find out what promotions are available, or to make a purchase, please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com

Top 2 brands powering global CHC growth

Our blog this week looks at the performance of the Top 10 global consumer healthcare brands, in the context of the 5.6% upturn for the global CHC market in the year to end-March 2020. Inevitably, analgesics and cough, cold & allergy brands have enjoyed the highest rates of growth thanks to Covid-driven demand, with the Top 2 global brands, Vicks (+15.4%) and Tylenol (+18.3%), performing particularly well.

P&G’s CCA range Vicks now generates global sales of nearly US$1.5bn, and its double-digit growth in the MAT Q1 2020 period was powered by dynamic performances in Latin America and North America. In fact, high growth in the US market was behind the double-digit global upturns for both Vicks and J&J’s Tylenol, the latter generating sales of close to US$1bn in its home market.

GSK markets four of the other Top 10 brands, including its powerful triumvirate of painkillers – Advil, Voltaren and Panadol. Growth for Advil and Panadol improved markedly in Q1, thanks to accelerated purchases as a result of Covid-19, while Voltaren experienced flat sales in the quarter. That said, the recent US Rx-to-OTC switch of Voltaren Arthritis Pain is expected to provide a significant boost to brand sales in Q2.

Halls also saw growth accelerate in Q1, although not to the same extent as other CCA brands like Mucinex, which rediscovered growth during the first quarter of 2020 to leap ahead of J&J’s Nicorette to reclaim the global No.9 spot. VMS brands Centrum and Nature Made missed out on the overall surge in demand for CHC products in Q1 – in general, growth in the VMS market has been focused primarily on immune supplements and vitamin C products.

Pre-order our upcoming Analgesics 2020: Assessing the Current & Future Self-Care Market for Pain Relief report before 31 July to save up to GB£1,800! Please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com to order or to find out about special discounts available on purchases of more than one report title!

Survey shows growing support for pharmacies in Europe

According to a YouGov survey, commissioned by Stada and focusing on four European countries (Germany, Italy, Spain and UK), hope and confidence in healthcare professionals has grown in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, though the picture does vary from one country to the next. With measures to reduce coronavirus infection rates defining daily life, Spaniards show the greatest concern for their health (51%), while people in Germany, Italy and UK are less worried (36-39%).

Germans (18%) are least likely to believe their healthcare system has absolutely proven itself, while 47% of Spaniards gave their health system top marks, followed by the UK (35%) and Italy (29%). Spaniards (32%) and Italians (28%) are most likely to have avoided visiting pharmacies vs only 14% in Germany and 19% in UK. In total, one in five people have greater respect and more recognition of what pharmacies provide on a day-to-day basis.

The potentially good news for community pharmacies in Europe is that the coronavirus crisis does not appear to be leading to a large number of people ordering more medicines online. In fact, only 6% of those surveyed say they are taking this action. However, it will remain to be seen how consumer attitudes to internet & mail order purchasing of OTCs change in the coming years, especially in Europe. According to DB6 VP, Celine Waller, internet & mail order is expected to account for 19.2% of the total CHC market within the next decade, more than doubling its share from 9.4% currently. 

The survey also highlighted the likely impact of Covid-19 on the VMS market in Europe. UK consumers and Germans are generally not motivated to take more vitamins or similar products (<9%). In Italy and Spain, the readiness to do so is higher, particularly for vitamin C, D and multivitamins (13-15%). Paying greater attention to nutrition and taking more exercise hold greater attraction in the southern countries than in Germany and the UK, where people are more likely to say that the coronavirus situation has not changed their habits. 

Ensure that you have registered to join Nicholas online for a special webinar presentation with Q&A, which will take place next week! On 29 April at 10:00-11:30 UK time, Nicholas will review 2019 CHC market performance, explore the impact of Covid-19 and identify growth prospects for the future. For those unable to join, there will be the option to purchase a recording and submit up to 3 questions via email. To find out more or to register to join, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com without hesitation!