High on innovation, but CBD faces regulatory uncertainty

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Various Nicholas Hall publications, notably OTC.NewDirections and OTC New Products Tracker, provide in-depth coverage of medical cannabis developments owing to the category’s huge potential to boost future consumer healthcare growth. High levels of innovation, both in terms of positioning and delivery format (like those detailed below), continue to characterise the category, but recent regulatory moves by the WHO and EU mean that the status of CBD supplements remains far from settled.

Looking at delivery format innovations, recent developments include a new mouth spray in the UK (Natures Aid CBD Oil Spray from Thornton & Ross / Stada) and a new nasal spray in the USA (Rhinodol from New Leaf Pharmaceuticals). The latter claims to deliver the highest concentrations of medical CBD at an affordable cost (US$69.99). According to New Leaf, the oral administrative route provides the lowest bioavailability, owing to the digestive processes that occur when CBDs enter the blood stream (a significant amount of CBD goes into the liver and is broken down into unusable compounds).

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Screenshot from New Leaf Pharma’s website

Meanwhile, attitudes to CBD and cannabis are changing at a regulatory level. According to news sources, a leaked World Health Organisation internal letter to the UN Secretary-General recommends that whole-flower cannabis and its resins should be removed from Schedule IV of the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs (1961), the most restrictive international drug category. Cannabis scheduling was discussed at the Expert Committee of Drug Dependence 41st meeting in November 2018 but the discussions have not been published. The letter also clarified that cannabidiol should not be scheduled within the International Drug Control Conventions, while tinctures and extracts of cannabis should also be deleted from Schedule I. WHO recommendations will be voted on by the UN’s Commission on Narcotic Drugs, which could take place in March 2019.

In Europe, marketers of CBD supplements are facing new regulatory hurdles. The European Food Safety Authority has amended the entry for cannabinoids on the Novel Foods register, which now states: “Extracts of Cannabis sativa L. and derived products containing cannabinoids are considered novel foods as a history of consumption has not been demonstrated. This applies to both the extracts themselves and any products to which they are added as an ingredient (such as hemp seed oil). This also applies to extracts of other plants containing cannabinoids. Synthetically-obtained cannabinoids are considered as novel.”

This means that CBD supplements are now classed as a novel food in Europe and manufacturers face the prospect of having to take their products off the market while they apply for approved novel food status, which can take around a year. In December 2018, Austria banned the sale of CBD extracts, stating that the ingredients fall under the EU’s Novel Foods regulations and cannot be marketed without authorisation.

Join Nicholas Hall at our upcoming New Jersey meeting, hosted with our partners Everything Health. Based on the theme, Innovate, Digitize, Integrate, the meeting takes place on 26-27 June, with representatives from Perrigo, MarketHub, Google and many others, joining us to discuss and debate topics including:

  • Market Trends and Innovation
  • Key Developments in the Cannabis Market
  • Connected Health
  • Consumer Insights using Artificial Intelligence  
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East to power global economy in 2019

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According to the latest research from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), several countries in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa will produce the highest economic growth in 2019, while North America, Europe and even Latin America will lag behind. There are some exceptions to this trend (like Poland and Ireland in Europe, which are forecast to outperform the global economy in 2019) but the general picture shows that the highest GDP growth will be in the east.

Although there are concerns about the economic slowdown in China – see our blog just before Christmas and the recent letter from Apple CEO Tim Cook to investors – the country is expected to remain among the best-performing economies in 2019, with a growth forecast of 6.3%. The EIU revised up slightly its China forecast for 2019, following the agreement reached between the US and China at the G20 to delay planned tariff actions. However, it remains uncertain whether a bilateral trade deal will be reached.

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China’s troubles may actually be providing a boost to neighbouring Asia-Pacific markets, such as Vietnam, which offer an alternative manufacturing location. Also, as we’ve highlighted on the blog previously, several African markets have likewise been boosted by their growing status as manufacturing hubs, notably Kenya. As for India, it is forecast by the EIU to be among the Top 5 fastest-growing economies in 2019, continuing its strong 2018 upturn – according to the latest OTC DASHBOARD data for the MAT Q3 2018 period, India is the fastest-growing OTC market in Asia-Pacific, up 8.8%.

At the other end of the scale, key Latin American markets Venezuela and Argentina are forecast to be among the Top 5 worst-performing economies in 2019, while Mexico and Brazil are also expected to perform below par this year. However, high inflation has helped to boost OTC growth in these markets. As for Europe, several western European markets are forecast to produce low growth, while Japan, Turkey and South Africa are all expected to produce growth in the 0-2% range, with the US performing slightly better.

Join Nicholas Hall and The CHC Training Academy in Vietnam on 28 February. Focusing on the central theme of Winning Together in Consumer Health, this unique workshop will enable you to develop essential skills to succeed in the new era of collaborative partnership approaches between retailer and supplier for strengthening categories together, plus deep insights on key stakeholders. Don’t delay — book your place before 17 January to save with our generous early bird discount! To find out more, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com

MAT Q2 2018: 5 Key Trends & Developments

Our latest Q2 2018 trend reports on the OTC market at global, regional and Top 20 level are now available on the OTC DASHBOARD website. Here we highlight some of the key trends & developments that have emerged in the latest data.

  1. Europe and Asia drive CCA upturn: Improving CCA growth helped the global OTC market report a slight upturn in Q2 (+4.2%). This followed a return to CCA growth in Europe (+2.7%) in Q2 2018, powered by the UK (+5.8%) and Germany (+4.1%), while France (+0.5%) also returned to positive territory. CCA growth in Asia-Pacific (+5.7%) likewise improved in Q2, thanks to a clear upturn for Systemic cold & flu (+4.7%), with key markets like S Korea enjoying high growth (+6.6%) on the back of OTC innovations such as the relaunch of Dong-A’s Pantec Q.
  2. Sanofi reclaims the No.3 spot from J&J: While GSK maintains its clear lead as the global OTC No.1 marketer, a tight three-way race remains in play for the No.2 spot between Bayer, Sanofi and J&J. Bayer is still the global No.2, while Sanofi reclaimed its position as the global No.3 in Q2 2018, moving ahead of J&J. In Sanofi’s Q2 results, the company reported a return to OTC growth in Europe and a continued strong rise in Emerging Markets, especially in Latin America. The company reported a CCA upturn in both regions, offsetting US allergy decline.
  3. US market behind VMS upturn: Higher Q2 growth in North America’s vast supplements market (+4.0%) has been the key trend behind the improving global picture. In Q2, multivitamins (+2.8%) underwent a clear upturn while the trend for probiotics (+6.9%) and immune supplements (+10.4%) also improved. The latter category has been a particularly vibrant source of OTC innovation in recent months; for example, Nestle has launched elderberry immune gummies as part of its mykind Organics line, while post-surgery immunity supplements and those with a digestive health crossover have also been popular.
  4. Where’s the growth potential? 1. Adjacencies: OTC marketers are increasingly looking to build new consumer healthcare adjacencies, either via switch – in the case of erectile dysfunction and Pfizer’s Viagra Connect – or new product innovation, in the case of medical cannabis. Canada recently voted to legalise cannabis, though the future for CBD and THC supplements remains uncertain. We don’t yet include sales of medical cannabis products in OTC DASHBOARD, though we do track developments in this category closely in both our innovation database, OTC New Products Tracker, and regulatory newsletter, OTC.NewDirections.
  5. Where’s the growth potential? 2. New territories: Rest of World countries (mainly Middle East & Africa) enjoyed continued high in Q2 2018, with sales up 6.6% in the 12 months to end-June 2018, to total US$9.2bn. High growth for analgesics (+7.2%) and CCA products (+6.7%) ensured a strong regional rise overall, allied with a dynamic performance in the key regional market of Turkey (+13.3%). RB is one marketer performing well in the region, claiming a spot among the Top 5 OTC marketers in Q2 2018, following dynamic growth of its CCA portfolio, powered by sore throat remedy Strepsils and its strong support via A+P and line extensions.

With M&A activity in the CHC industry increasing rapidly, now may be the right time for your business to explore growth opportunities. Our specialist M&A boutique is working with a number of strategic and financial partners to assess potential opportunities — for buyers and sellers — and is well placed to discuss the current business climate and possible synergies. To find out more, please contact ammar.basit@NicholasHall.com

MAT Q1 2018: Global OTC growth steady at 4.1%

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According to Nicholas Hall’s global OTC database, DB6, the OTC market maintained 4.1% growth in the 12 months to end-March 2018. This steady but slower rate of global OTC growth compares to a faster pace during the first three quarters of 2017, when growth peaked at 4.6%.

The key factor in the persistent slowdown in Q1 2018 was lower OTC growth in the USA (+2.5% vs +2.8% for calendar 2017), with faster development held back by a weak allergy season. As highlighted in our OTC DASHBOARD market summary for North America, the impact of recent Rx-to-OTC switch activity in the US market has also been minimal.

Some positives emerged in the MAT Q1 2018 data. OTC growth in Western Europe improved to 1.8%, boosted by a high incidence of cough & cold in the first quarter of this year, while Latin America’s OTC market continued to increase strongly (+11.8%), with leading country Brazil up by 9.8%.

The OTC performance in Asia-Pacific (+4.7%) was mixed, with China (+6.3%) and India (+7.9%) improving upon their 2017 growth, however Japan and Australia remained flat in Q1 2018. Growth in the Middle East & Africa remained stable at 6.7%, while Central & Eastern Europe decelerated further to 5.5%, with weakening growth in both Russia (+3.5%) and Poland (+3.3%).

If you are not a subscriber and would like to find out more about what DB6 covers, please contact kayleigh.griffinhooper@NicholasHall.com for a free demo.

 

AESGP meeting 2018: Key learnings

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OTC INSIGHT Europe Editor Sarah Carter reports back from this year’s 54th AESGP Annual Meeting, which was held in Amsterdam and served as a farewell to Dr Hubertus Cranz, who retired as Director General after 30 years in the role.

Below are 8 key learnings from the meeting:

  1. Representatives from Pfizer and Hexal / Sandoz demonstrated how Rx-to-OTC switch can act as a growth driver for the consumer healthcare industry, with Nexium Control (EU Centralised Switch) and MometaHexal (Germany) given as case studies. Both asserted that the Rx heritage of the brands was instrumental in their successful switch, with both market leaders in their respective Rx spheres.
  2. However, while switch offers growth opportunities, several speakers stressed that the limited 1-year data exclusivity available with a switched product in the EU can deter marketers from making the timely and costly investment needed to switch their product.
  3. Digitalisation has transformed the rules of the healthcare industry and education. According to Google, search engines and online videos are the most important touch points for OTC purchasers, with one in 20 searches on Google related to health. In 2017, there were 40bn healthcare queries in EMEA alone.
  4. The global volume of healthcare data doubles every 18 months. It is crucial that we build trust with consumers regarding Big Data, ensuring that our industry uses this in a responsible manner, particularly salient given the introduction of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation on 25 May 2018.
  5. Low levels of health literacy act as a barrier to self-care. We must empower consumers with the tools and knowledge necessary to play an active role in their health management, healthy ageing and prevention. Healthcare systems need conscious individuals who actively pursue a healthy lifestyle, and seek HCP advice where necessary.
  6. Technology such as wearables and apps has helped to raise health awareness and engagement among consumers, driving the trend for wellness and encouraging people to become key actors in their health management. In the industry, we see increasing purchases of long-term preventive products, rather than OTC treatments.
  7. It is vital that we understand the consumer at a much deeper level than we have done historically, as they no longer want to be sold to, but engaged with. The advent of Big Data and AI deliver us new tools to generate insights and ultimately create more meaningful connections and stronger relationships.
  8. There is little to report on regulations — still no decision on botanicals, and no real update on medical device regulations.

Only two weeks to go until the annual North American OTC Conference! Hosted by Nicholas Hall and Everything Health in Morristown, New Jersey, 20-21 June, this highly-anticipated meeting will review crucial topics impacting the competitive landscape around the central theme of The Future of Consumer Self-care: New OTC Solutions. With topics on the agenda including the e-commerce revolution, a presentation on “Magical Marketing in Healthcare” from Google and a look at the industry’s ‘Switch wish list’, this promises to be an event you can’t afford to miss. To receive a copy of the full meeting agenda or to reserve your place now, contact lianne.hill@NicholasHall.com

Competition rises in sleep devices category

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Now available to buy in the US and selected European markets via the Nokia Health store, the new Nokia Sleep device is a sensor pad that can be placed under the mattress to monitor sleep patterns, track heart rate and detect snoring. 

It also syncs up to Nokia’s Health Mate app and provides smart home control via IFTTT (if this then that) integration, which allows for automatic thermostat regulation and light adjustment. The app also allows the user to view their Sleep Score to get an insight into what makes a good night’s sleep and how to improve night after night.

Packaged as a sensor pad with USB charger, Nokia Sleep retails at $99.95 (USA), €99.95 (Europe) and £99.95 (UK), and the brand website indicates that there are plans to roll out the product in key Asia-Pacific markets like China and Japan.

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Facing stiff competition in the smartphone market from Apple, Google and Chinese manufacturers, Nokia – the former king of mobile phones – is looking to further diversify its business.

Nokia Sleep was due to launch earlier this year, but news of a strategic review of Nokia’s Digital Health business in February 2018 put the rollout in doubt. Nokia will be monitoring closely how this new product fares against established competitor Beddit, which was acquired by Apple in 2017.

Whether you want to find out more about the latest innovations, benchmark the competition or simply keep abreast of new launches, Nicholas Hall’s extensive OTC New Products Tracker is an essential competitive intelligence tool that you simply must trial. Subscribers can also benefit from a newsletter highlighting the key product innovations affecting the industry. Find out more or set up your free trial today by contacting david.redford@NicholasHall.com

Q1 2017: Early analysis of the global OTC performance

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Nicholas Hall’s global OTC database, DB6, has just published its latest figures relating to the Q1 2017 performance of the OTC market, and below are some standout trends based on early analysis of the data. Over the coming weeks, our OTC INSIGHT research teams will be compiling the latest trend info at a regional and Top 20 country level, and we’ll alert you as soon as this analysis has been uploaded to the OTC DASHBOARD website.

1. Russia returns to higher growth (+18.2% MAT Q1 2017 vs +11.3% full-year 2016)

A key factor in the slightly improved performance of the global OTC market in the 12 months to end-March 2017 (+4.5%) vs full-year 2016 (+4.3%) was higher growth in Russia. While a modest upturn in the world’s No.1 OTC market, USA, was offset by decelerating growth for both No.2 market China and No.3 market Japan, it was the European countries – largely No.5 Russia, but also No.4 Germany – that accounted for the improved performance of the global OTC market in Q1 2017.

2. CCA growth at the heart of Europe’s revived fortunes in Q1 2017

Global CCA sales were up 4.7% in 2016, thanks to a strong end to the year, and this trend continued into the first quarter of 2017, with growth accelerating to 6.3% in the MAT Q1 2017 period. Europe was largely behind this upsurge, with CCA growth in Western Europe showing a marked improvement (+3.8%), while Central & Eastern Europe was the biggest source of dynamism (+17.8%), led by Russia and Poland. This trend extended to the rest of the northern hemisphere, with North America also reporting higher CCA growth (+4.4%) in the MAT Q1 2017 period, with Canada especially vibrant (+6.9%).

3. Global Top 5 stays the same, but J&J may overtake Sanofi by mid-year

While the Top 5 global OTC marketers – GSK, Bayer, Sanofi, J&J and Pfizer – remain fixed in position and adrift from the rest of the competition, the battle for the No.3 spot between Sanofi (+3.8%) and J&J (+4.1%) continues to intensify. On current trends, it looks as though J&J may overtake Sanofi by the end of Q2 2017, and we will confirm the outcome of this battle later in the year.

In the meantime, please check your weekly briefings and OTC DASHBOARD‘s Charts & Graphs archive for more early analysis of the Q1 2017 results over the coming weeks.