Retail CHC growth accelerates to 4.8% in 2021

Below we look at the regional trends from the just published DB6 data on the performance of the global CHC market in 2021, showing how an upturn in Asia-Pacific helped global growth accelerate to 4.8% in the full-year period.

Europe (+3.3%) was the slowest growing region globally, although this does reflect an upturn vs 2020, thanks to robust growth in gastrointestinals (+6.1%) and a return to growth for cough, cold & allergy (+2.4%). Largest market Germany (-0.6%) saw its decline soften, while other Big 5 Western European markets rebounded to growth. Notably, Russia has fallen down the rankings from No.2 to No.4 in Europe, largely driven by devaluation of the Rouble, coupled with a flat year-end result (+1.8%)

Asia-Pacific (+5.6%) had a buoyant performance vs 2020, attributed to advances in largest market China (+6.9%) and a softening decline for No.2 ranked Japan (-1.2%), these markets have a combined share of almost 70% of total regional sales. Sales in China have rebounded somewhat, as harsh Covid restrictions generated a relatively weak 2020 comparator. Despite intermittent restrictions continuing, a relatively free environment has boosted sales across most major categories as consumers seek to remedy all ailments.

Americas (+4.9%) saw a slowdown vs 2020; the US market (+3.9%) has gained momentum throughout the year – finishing well, albeit slower than 2020 – thanks to a robust cough cold & allergy uptick (+6.5%) and notable increases in Lifestyle CHC (+10.8%) and gastrointestinals (+8.9%), more than offsetting the slowdown in VMS and decline in dermatologicals.

In Latin America, leading market Brazil (+11.7%) advanced thanks to double-digit increases in VMS (+16.2%), cough, cold & allergy (+11.6%) and Lifestyle CHC (+11%).

Only one month to go until our 32nd European CHC Conference & CHC Training Academy Workshop! Taking place in Athens on 4-6 May 2022, industry experts from GSK, J&J, Menarini, NielsenIQ and more will explore how as an industry we can move forward with CHC Innovation! Please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com to reserve your place.

CHPA Self-Care Leadership Summit

From Nicholas Hall’s Regional VP, North America, Liz Cummings

USA: “If there was ever any doubt, the world has learned what we knew all along – that consumer healthcare is absolutely essential to public health and that good healthcare starts with good self-care,” observed Consumer Healthcare Products Association President & CEO Scott Melville during his keynote at the CHPA annual Self-Care Leadership Summit last week.

Two areas of self-care – dietary supplements and diagnostics – were especially important to consumers during the pandemic, he noted, and CHPA’s membership expansion into those categories positions the association well to support the full scope of the industry in the future. One example is the data-driven Dietary Supplement Index (USA), which identifies supplements sales by region and provides a tool for the industry to educate healthcare providers and insurers to make the case for nutrition as essential to healthcare.  

During the meeting, the CHPA awarded its Ivan D Combe Lifetime Achievement Award to longtime industry leader – and former Chair – Gary Downing. Praised by many former employees at the event for his leadership, Downing has spent his career growing CHC companies, with a resume that includes sales and management at the Richards-Vicks Company. He later co-founded MedTech Labs, which eventually sold for a 400% rate of return, joined the Lansinoh Laboratories Board of Directors and became CEO of Insight Pharmaceuticals, then Clarion Brands, which was recently sold to Bridges Consumer Healthcare.

The audience also appreciated with standing ovations the 40-year CHPA career of Phyllis Taylor, Sr Director of Membership and Sponsorship, when her retirement was announced by Melville. We at the Nicholas Hall Group of Companies send her our very best wishes for a happy next chapter with her family.

The CHPA meeting will be reviewed in detail in the forthcoming March / April issue of CHC Insight North America. To review the latest trends and developments across the region, please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com to find out more, or to receive a sample copy of a recent issue.

Global dementia cases set to triple

The number of people aged 40+ years with dementia could nearly triple worldwide from 57mn in 2019 to 153mn by 2050. This is according to a study of 195 countries funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, published in The Lancet Public Health on 6th January 2022. The projected increase is largely owing to the ageing population and population growth.

However, the study also looks at four risk factors – smoking, obesity, high blood sugar and low education – and highlights their impact on future trends. While improvements in global education access are projected to reduce dementia prevalence by 6.2mn cases by 2050, this will be offset by anticipated trends in obesity, high blood sugar and smoking, which are expected to result in an additional 6.8mn cases.

Nicholas Hall’s Touchpoints: This study was conducted by the University of Washington, and to quote the lead author, Emma Nichols: “We need to focus more on prevention and control of risk factors before they result in dementia. Even modest advances in preventing dementia or delaying its progression would pay remarkable dividends. To have the greatest impact, we need to reduce exposure to the leading risk factors. For most, this means scaling up locally-appropriate, low-cost programmes that support healthier diets, more exercise, quitting smoking and better access to education.”

Is there a role for consumer healthcare here? I believe there is! Not least, it is noticeable that herbal products sold for memory & brain health have been growing consistently during the past five years, with a spike in demand in 2020. Taking all channels of distribution into account, this category is valued at over a billion dollars, with the USA accounting for about 50% of sales. In Prevagen, it has produced a mega-brand, which is why both Reckitt and P&G have entered the fray. At a time of continuing interest in M&A, it’s encouraging to see that there are a number of CHC categories delivering substantial organic growth.

Herbal memory and brain health supplements will be reviewed in our forthcoming report, Herbals & Naturals, which will track the leading H&N marketers, highlight developments, sales and success strategies. To pre-order your copy and save up to GB£2,100, or for further information, please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com.

MAT Q2 2021: Global CHC Market Trends

The latest update from Nicholas Hall’s CHC database DB6 indicates that in MAT Q2 2021, the retail (bricks & mortar) CHC market returned to growth following a decline in the previous reporting period – the first seen since DB6 records began. Overall global CHC sales were up 1.7% to US$151bn.

In terms of performance by geography, the Americas returned to positive growth (+1.3%), with a flat performance in North America bolstered by LatAm markets, including double-digit growth in Brazil (+10.6%). USA remains the clear No.1 CHC market globally, and grew modestly (+0.2%).

Asia-Pacific was the best performing region (+4.8%); while it continues to be impacted by loss of revenue from overseas visitors in key markets Japan (-4.0%) and Australia (-5.5%), high single-digit increases in China and India helped to lift the topline.

Source: Nicholas Hall’s global CHC sales database DB6 (all values at MSP).

Europe continues to decline (-2.0%), still heavily impacted by retraction in CCA and analgesics in Western Europe in particular. Key markets Germany (-8.5%) and UK (-10.8%) fell significantly, although this was partly offset by a positive trend in C&E Europe (+3.6%), with Russia maintaining mid-single digit increase (+4.1%) and Poland returning to growth after a decline in the previous reporting period.

Nicholas Hall Writes: “In 2020 we saw the market grow across the board during the first half, ease back in the second half, perform very badly in Q1 this year and return to growth in Q2. Is this a trend? Is it as simple as drawing the line forward to the point where we regain the pre-pandemic 3.7% retail sector growth rate? We all have our own point of view, but it would be a brave soul prepared to make a firm prediction. So in the best tradition of being a thrusting brand manager, I’m going to hedge my bets until I see the Q3 figures from DB6.

We are pleased to announce that Nicholas Hall’s DB6 mid-year update for 2021 is now available! Subscribers can access over 150,000 pieces of data, with more than 30,000 records covering 13,000+ brands and 3,000 companies across 63 countries. To find out more or to set up a free demo, please contact kate.holdcroft@NicholasHall.com.

North America Conference Report

Nicholas Hall’s North America e-Conference was held last week, with various speakers giving inspiring presentations on the latest trends in the CHC market, innovations, rising brands, keys to brand success, modern marketing strategies and future growth categories.

Nicholas Hall began the webinar by unpacking current key trends in the industry, such as high interest in probiotic & prebiotic products and CBD, despite markets for both flatlining. He examined how many jumped on the immunity bandwagon in response to the pandemic, with brands such as elderberry-based Sambucol experiencing great success in 2020, but also how this category has seen a slowdown in the first few months of 2021. Nicholas concluded with a look ahead at Infinity Zones (future growth categories), which include probiotics, food allergy & intolerance, cannabis, sexual health and obesity (among others).

The following talks focused on the non-prescription imperative, and how the current challenge of access to health treatment in the USA may best be addressed. Mary Alice Lawless discussed the new and exciting capabilities of Biograph by Amwell, which uses fully customisable, layered frameworks for proper implementation of labelling strategies and allows for communication and education to be personalised to an individual profile. Jim Parker and Joseph McGovern discussed the issue of undertreatment in the USA and the steps that can be taken to increase and improve access to treatments on a non-prescription basis, including CHC product development and advances in technology to help consumers self-diagnose conditions and ensure proper self-selection. Clark Richardson finished this section of the webinar, concluding that the next crops of OTC switch candidates will require different tools to help consumers safely select and use medications, and that comprehension studies, self-selection studies and actual use studies must be undertaken.

The Non-Prescription Imperative: Switch to return as key driver of US OTC growth

Next up, Douglas Stukenborg gave insight into the keys to success he discovered when helping to create the Welly plaster brand. His tips included the need to start with the problem in a category rather than the answer, to limit/leverage distribution to manage risk and to launch fast & fix fast. Second in the segment on Challenger Brands, Daniel Hassan described how brands IB Gard, REMfresh and Fiber Choice became successful while 85% of new CPG brands fail. His advice included building enduring brands in the drug free space, creating patented prescription-quality innovations, winning support in the medical community, and providing science to allow educated consumers to believe in products and to allow doctors to recommend products.

Anna Mayo and Corinne Shindelar then discussed online sales trends, movement towards subscription services for vitamin products, the increasing popularity of click and collect and DTC brands, the trend towards clean and natural and plant-based products among younger consumers, the growth of the natural/organic industry, the increase in herbal supplement sales in the USA and the growth of consumer interest in GMO-free, cruelty free and vegan products. Finally, Michelle Bottomley described the “Modern Marketer’s Tool Kit”, with focus shifting from product-centric to consumer-centric, and from product sales to consumer portfolio growth. She also discussed how modern marketing can flex across a continuum of art & science to utilise multiple channels and integrate all communications to give 360-degree surround of the target consumer with a seamless, personalised experience at every point of contact. Steve Sowerby rounded off the conference with a helpful summary of each speaker’s contributions and some interesting closing thoughts for the industry moving ahead.

If you were unable to join, contact us to purchase a recording of the North America session. Next on the agenda is our APAC e-Conference 2021 on 23 November and the Latin America e-Conference 2021 on 14 December. To find out more about these conferences, entry submission criteria for any of the awards, or to book your place, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com.

MAT Q1 2021: Global CHC sales fall 0.6%

According to Nicholas Hall’s global sales database DB6, the retail (bricks & mortar) CHC market generated global sales of US$148bn, down by -0.6% versus a year ago. Further heavy decline for cough, cold & allergy (-14.5%), especially in North America and Western Europe, was largely responsible for the global fall in CHC sales. The Americas declined by -0.4%, driven by a -1.9% fall in North America, but slightly offset by a positive performance by LatAm markets (+8.5%), notably double-digit growth in Brazil (+10.6%).

Asia remained relatively weak (+2.6%); despite strong growth in China (+7.1%), the region continues to be impacted by loss of revenue from overseas visitors in key markets Japan (-9.1%) and Australia (-8.0%). Europe saw a significant downturn (-5.5%), heavily impacted by declines in CCA and analgesics in Western Europe. Key markets Germany (-13.3%) and UK (-13.9%) fell by double-digits during the MAT Q1 2021 period. In C&E Europe, meanwhile, Russia continued to post a positive performance (+4.1%), albeit at a slower rate than year-end.

As for global performance by major category, vitamins, minerals & supplements (+5.3%) remained the fastest-growing category – albeit at a slower rate than year-end 2020 – with immune-associated categories continuing to benefit from greater consumer focus on wellness maintenance and protection. Dermatologicals increased by +4.5%, its buoyancy largely attributed to the performance of antiseptics & disinfectants (+53.1%) during the pandemic. Lifestyle CHC grew by +2.4%, driven by double-digit increases in sedatives & sleep aids (+14.5%) as well as smaller categories such as obesity treatments, emergency hormonal contraception and erectile dysfunction.

Gastrointestinals returned a low level increase (+1.2%), while analgesics saw a decline of -1.8% globally, with systemics down -4.3%, largely owing to the effects of pantry loading at the start of the pandemic. Cough, cold & allergy saw the strongest decline, with sales falling by -14.5% in the 12 months to end March. Pantry loading, as well as the effects of lockdown restrictions, social distancing, mask wearing and hygiene measures resulted in significantly reduced incidence of respiratory pathologies.

At a time when consumers are highly aware of the importance of maintaining their immune system, we are pleased to announce that Immunity will be the focus of our next hot topic report! We will review a number of categories including antivirals, immune supplements and vitamins C & D and explore the latest launch activity, plus much more. To pre-order your copy and save with the pre-publication discount, or to find out more, please contact Melissa.Lee@NicholasHall.com.

NPD roundup: Women’s Health in 2020

To mark International Women’s Day, our blog this week rounds up some of the most notable women’s health NPD activity in the global CHC market in 2020, with examples from all four major regions (Europe, Asia-Pacific, North America and Latin America), as provided by our CHC New Products Tracker service.

Probiotics & prebiotics was a particularly lively source of women’s health innovation, including Farmoquimica’s late 2020 launch of Simbiofem in Brazil, positioned to balance female intestinal flora and claimed to be the first probiotic in the market for women’s health. In Spain, FertyPharma unveiled Fertybiotic Mujer Plus in early 2020, uniquely positioned to improve the fertility of women with PCOS (polycystic ovarian syndrome), while in South Korea Huons launched Elruby Menolacto Probiotics in Q4 2020, offering the benefit of an original formula to help support menopausal women. In the USA, a particularly innovative women’s health probiotic launch was HUM Private Party, with a unique formulation that combines a proprietary women’s probiotic blend with cranberry extract, which is positioned to support healthy vaginal and urinary tract health.

As for digital health solutions, which are profiled in one of the chapter’s of our upcoming Innovation in CHC report, a notable women’s health development in the UK was Velieve (Healthy.io), an at-home service for women to determine if they have a UTI (urinary tract infection). Velieve was test marketed in London first and is available as a kit (containing a urine collection cup, dipstick and colour board), which is delivered within 3 hours of ordering online, and the user is then required to download the Velieve app to guide them through the test, turning their smartphone into a medical device to read the dipstick.

Finally, looking at VMS, there were also several notable women’s health developments in China in 2020, including GSK’s extension of calcium supplement Caltrate with Caltrate Women, Unilever’s rollout of Olly The Perfect Women’s Multi and Eu Yan Sang’s launch of Gold Label Bak Foong Small Pills (a plant-based formula positioned as a treatment to alleviate menstrual pain).

Seize your last chance to save on our forthcoming report from Nicholas Hall’s CHC New Products Tracker, Innovation in CHC 2021. Putting innovation and NPD activity from 2020 under the microscope, click here to pre-order your copy without delay. For more information, or to place your order, please contact Melissa.Lee@NicholasHall.com

Star VMS Performers in MAT Q2 2020

Global sales of vitamins, minerals & supplements in the MAT Q2 2020 period advanced by 5.5%, a further clear upturn vs Q1 2020 and Q4 2019, and a trend that helped to offset the Q2 slowdown for CCA remedies. Faster growth in North America’s vast supplements market (+8.8%) was the primary factor underpinning the accelerating trend globally, helping the region move back ahead of Europe in terms of CHC turnover in Q2.

In this week’s blog, we take a closer look at the VMS brands driving growth at both a regional and country level. In North America, as well as the continued rapid growth of J&J’s Tylenol, two VMS ranges that performed exceptionally well among the regional Top 10 brands were Nature’s Bounty (The Nature’s Bounty Co) and Olly (Unilever). New product development, such as the launch of the Olly Ultra Softgels line in April 2020, as well as the brand’s rollout to Canada in May 2020, have boosted Olly sales.

In Asia-Pacific, the standout trend has been the exceptionally high growth of chyawanprash supplements, up 121% globally – outpacing other fast-growing prevention categories such as immune supplements (+38.6%) and vitamin C (+23.5%) – driven by accelerating demand in India. Dabur Chyawanprash (Dabur) is now India’s No.1 OTC brand, after sales more than doubled in the 12 months to June 2020 thanks to surging demand in H1 as a result of the pandemic, and the brand has now also sneaked into Asia-Pacific’s Top 10 CHC brands regionally.

In Europe, growth was more muted across the board, with Top 10 brands like RB’s Nurofen and Bayer’s Bepanthen driving growth at a regional level. However, focusing on brand performances at a country level in Europe reveals the impact of VMS brands and natural-based sleep aids on growth, with Orthomol (+10.6%) rising fast in Germany, GSK’s single vitamin brand BE-Total (+16.2%) up strongly in Italy, P&G’s multivitamin Bion 3 (+16.0%) advancing rapidly in France and sleep aids Aquilea (+13.5%) and Dormidina (+11.3%) powering Q2 growth in Spain.

As for Latin America, Sanofi’s analgesics brands Dorflex and Novalgina were two of the best Top 10 performers at a regional level, while Bayer’s Redoxon (+65.7%) was the star performer, thanks to soaring demand amid the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2019-20, Bayer rolled out Redoxon Triple Action (vitamins C + D plus zinc; positioned for enhanced immune support) in numerous local markets.

With just under a month to go, there is still time to register to join Nicholas Hall’s Asia-Pacific webinar. On 12 November, Nicholas and other industry experts will explore key trends in the region, including a look at WOW! brands, growth prospects, distribution, the very important topic of sustainability and much more. To find out more, or to register, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com.

Food intolerance category shows huge promise

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For the next instalment in our series of blogs on Nicholas Hall’s Infinity Zones for future CHC growth, we take a closer look at the growing issue of food intolerance, driven by unhealthy eating and the rise of processed food with additives, as well as changing diets across the world. Currently a driver of GIs growth, food intolerance has the potential to break out and become its own OTC category, and Nicholas Hall is urging CHC companies to seize this huge opportunity in the face of any future competition that might come from mainstream food companies, as was the case with functional foods.

A 2016 Nielsen study showed a high prevalence of food intolerance across various regions – the percentage of those who say someone in their household has food intolerances / allergies was 22% in Europe, 31% in North America, 34% in Latin America and 42% in Asia-Pacific, with children more likely to suffer than adults. Food intolerances (lactose, cruciferous vegetables, gluten, fructose, etc) can cause a variety of challenging symptoms for those affected, and new product development is catering for this fast-growing market.

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Lactose intolerance is the most established niche, with lactase supplements (an enzyme that helps digest lactose) generating sales of roughly $65mn in 2018. Lactase supplements are fairly well-established in North America and Europe, with J&J’s Lactaid a key brand in the USA, while Latin America – especially Brazil – remains a current hotbed of innovation. Other intolerances are also increasingly being catered for with new products such as GluteoStop (Ineo Pharma) in Germany / Switzerland and Glutenam (Named) in Italy for glucose intolerance, and Fructaid (Pro Natura) in Germany for fructose intolerance.

Marketers of diagnostics and probiotics have also recognised the potential of this category. Lykon has launched MyNutrition 100 in Germany and UK (retailing for between $110-125), an at-home kit positioned to test for food intolerance across the 100 most common foods, while Montefarmaco extended probiotic brand Lactoflorene in Italy in 2019 with Lactoflorene Digest, claimed to promote the balance of intestinal flora that can be compromised by digestive disorders such as lactose intolerance.

Food intolerance will be one of the key topics in our upcoming report, Nicholas Hall’s New Paradigms for CHC 2019: Over the Horizon, written by Nicholas himself! Examine each aspect of the CHC industry in 20 chapters, with a focus on major issues including Regulation, Pharmacy Point-of-Care, M&A, Switch and much more. Nicholas will also unveil in more detail the “infinity zones” he has identified as being crucial to the future growth of the industry. In addition to this, you can upgrade your purchase to include a customised in-house presentation or webinar with Nicholas for an additional GB£10,000. To find out more or to place your order, please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com.

J&J to buy Zarbee’s

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J&J Consumer has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire natural healthcare products company Zarbee’s Naturals for an undisclosed sum. With a 50% CAGR, the Zarbee’s Naturals business racked up sales of US$68mn in 2017, according to Nicholas Hall’s global OTC sales database DB6, and there is lots of room for growth ahead.

J&J’s VMS portfolio accounts for just 0.1% of its total consumer healthcare business, so the Zarbee’s deal will provide a significant boost (see the table from OTC DASHBOARD below showing J&J’s current OTC sales split by major category). There will also be scope to build the brand internationally – at present, Zarbee’s focus is almost exclusively on the US market, so J&J will likely use its considerable marketing muscle to roll out the brand in other key regions where it has a strong presence, like Europe and Asia-Pacific.

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Founded in 2008, Zarbee’s Naturals is majority owned by the Growth Fund of L Catterton in partnership with various minority owners, including Sorenson Capital. The deal, which is expected to complete in Q3 2018, will include the full line of Zarbee’s Naturals products for children and adults.

Product innovation has been one of the main drivers behind exceptional growth for Zarbee’s Naturals. In April 2018, the company introduced three Children’s Complete Multivitamins in a gummy format, including Complete Multivitamin + Iron, Complete Multivitamin + Probiotic and Complete Multivitamin + Immune. In partnership with Amazon, Zarbee’s also released a Baby Bee Essentials Gift Set complete with a bee romper and products such as Gripe Water and petroleum-free Baby Soothing Chest Rub. Paediatric products like these will fit well with J&J’s family-friendly image.

As Health and Wellness climbs up the list of consumer priorities, the market for herbal and natural options is booming. Take a look at what the future holds for this market with Nicholas Hall’s upcoming report Herbals & Naturals: Opportunities in a Vast & Dynamic Area of Consumer Health. Scheduled for publication in August, this report will include coverage of 9 leading global markets, analysis into a wide range of categories including Herbal & Natural Supplements, Topical Analgesics, Cough Remedies, Laxatives and more, plus forecast sales. Benefit from early bird rates when you pre-order today! For more information, or to pre-order your copy, please contact melissa.lee@nicholashall.com.