Humanity hits milestone of global population of 8bn

The “Day of 8bn”, officially marked on 15th November 2022, is a milestone moment for humanity, according to the UN Population Fund, and “a testament to scientific breakthroughs and improvements in nutrition, public health and sanitation”, said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. However, it comes with worsening economic inequality and environmental damage. “Unless we bridge the yawning chasm between the global haves and have-nots, we are setting ourselves up for an 8bn-strong world filled with tensions and mistrust, crisis and conflict,” warned Guterres. Whether populations are growing or shrinking, every country must be equipped to provide good quality of life and lift up the most marginalised citizens. “We cannot rely on one-size-fits-all solutions in a world in which the median age is 41 in Europe, compared to 17 in sub-Saharan Africa,” noted UNFPA Chief, Natalia Kanem. “To succeed, all population policies must have reproductive rights at their core, invest in people and planet, and be based on solid data.” 

UN data indicates that the global fertility rate is now at 2.3 (down from 3.3 in 1990) and getting close to the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which point the global population will stabilise (projected to be at some point between 2080 and 2100) and then decline. In the meantime, Africa is projected by the UN to drive half of the world’s population growth in the next 40 years, while India and Pakistan are projected to drive population growth in Asia.

^{Source: UN}

Nicholas Hall Writes: So, as of last Tuesday there are 8bn of us on this tiny planet, a mixture of the comparatively wealthy and those who struggle; the enlightened and those who suffer from dictators with a big stick and a stone age mentality; and those who want to be more healthy. Eleven years ago, there were 7bn of us, and some experts are taking comfort from the fact that it will take 15 years before we become 9bn. And apparently our population will peak at 10.4bn sometime in the 2080s, always assuming that Dr Strangelove in Moscow doesn’t push the red button.

Actually, the topic of better health is one of the few with which we are almost all agreed, but it is a decades-old story of more people chasing increasingly-scarcer resources. Despite the amazing breakthroughs in new ways of treating serious diseases, self-care still has the potential to deliver more benefits to more people than any other component of the global healthcare system. Self-care is more than just OTC, of course, and improved lifestyle has a massive role to play if we can encourage more exercise, better diet and a cleaner environment. But our pills in bottles, tablets in strips, creams in tubes have so much more to offer in terms of raising standards of public health – if we can only get the message across.

Explore the factors impacting CHC across Asia during our Asia-Pacific e-Conference, taking place online this week! The event will also include the presentation of our Regional CHC Creative Marketing Award. There is still time to confirm your participation – for more information, or to register, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com without delay.

CDC Report Shows Further Falls In US Life Expectancy

Life expectancy in USA has fallen for the second consecutive year, according to provisional data published by the US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention. For 2021, US life expectancy at birth was 76.1 years, the lowest since 1996 and down from 77.0 years in 2020. Male (73.2 years) and female (79.1) life expectancy also declined to levels not seen since 1996.

The almost one-year decline between 2020-21 was primarily owing to increases in mortality because of Covid-19 (50% of the negative contribution), unintentional injuries, heart disease, chronic liver disease & cirrhosis and suicide. This would have been greater were it not for the offsetting effects of decreases in mortality owing to influenza & pneumonia, chronic lower respiratory diseases, Alzheimer’s & Parkinson’s disease and perinatal conditions.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf

Nicholas Hall Writes: Does falling life expectancy matter? Yes, it matters a lot, to individuals and their friends and families; and to society, especially as some of the early deaths are among members of the economically-active population who financially support both the younger and older age groups. It also matters to our industry in that it continues to change the demographics, which may present new marketing opportunities.

As is his wont, tech billionaire Elon Musk has repeated his warning of a global underpopulation crisis, most recently tweeting that “population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilisation than global warming”. Experts disagree. Demographer Joseph Chamie hit back: “He’s better off making cars … than at predicting the trajectory of the population. Yes, [in] some countries, their population is declining, but for the world, that’s just not the case.” This is backed by the UN’s World Population Prospects 2022 report, as we reported back when it was first published in July, which predicts that on 15th November 2022 the global population will reach 8bn and that it could grow to around 8.5bn in 2030 and 9.7bn in 2050, before peaking at around 10.4bn people during the 2080s.

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UN: World population to reach 8bn in 2022 and 10bn by 2050

The UN’s World Population Prospects 2022 report predicts that on 15th November 2022 the global population will reach 8bn. The report also shows that India is on course to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. The latest UN projections suggest that the global population could grow to around 8.5bn in 2030 and 9.7bn in 2050, before peaking at around 10.4bn people during the 2080s.

More than half of the projected increase up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. While 2022 is a milestone year, the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen to less than 1% in 2020. As well as fertility, which has dropped markedly in recent decades for many countries, the pandemic has had an effect on population change: global life expectancy at birth fell to 71 years in 2021 (vs 72.9 in 2019).

^{Source: UN World Population Prospects 2022}

Nicholas Hall’s Touchpoints: The UN tells us that the global population will reach 8bn this year. As always, the demographic mix is important and by 2050 the number of over 65’s globally will be more than twice the number of children under the age of five and around the same as those aged under 12. Further reductions in mortality will increase average global longevity to around 77.2 years in 2050. But we don’t have to wait until 2050 to feel the effects of the ageing population, as all countries in the developed world are already experiencing high demand on healthcare services and medical products from a large cohort that expects a high quality of life for an extended period of time. This has been a discussion point throughout my 5 decades in this industry, and Big Pharma seems to defy gravity by always introducing better products at higher prices and sustaining or even growing margins.

But this cannot last, and the recent drive by the FDA to encourage more Rx-to-OTC switches is one of the most important emerging trends in our industry. As my colleague MaryAlice Lawless has written recently, the old switch model just won’t work any more, and the FDA has put the ball firmly in our court to come up with new regulatory and marketing models. That’s why the US switch application for the daily oral contraceptive is so important. Perrigo’s HRA subsidiary is in the forefront of this new category, having launched the first OTC version globally in the UK in 2021.

We are pleased to announce that the all-new agenda for our Asia-Pacific e-Conference has been released! Nicholas will be joined on 23 November by industry experts to explore expanding possibilities for CHC across the region. This event will also include the presentation of our Regional CHC Creative Marketing Award. For more information, or to register, please contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com.

Macro Trends: Economic & Demographic Outlook

In this week’s blog, we look at two recent reports on macro trends that will have a future impact on the consumer healthcare market. The first looks at short-term economic trends and the second longer-term demographic trends.

Last week the International Monetary Fund has revised down its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 to slightly below its July 2021 forecast of 6%. At a virtual G20 event, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said: “The most immediate obstacle is the ‘great vaccination divide’ – too many countries with too little access to vaccines, leaving too many people unprotected. At the same time, countries remain deeply divided in their ability to respond – in being able to support the recovery, and in their ability to invest for the future.”

“We face a global recovery that remains ‘hobbled’ by the pandemic and its impact. We are unable to walk forward properly — it is like walking with stones in our shoes.” Three of the most painful stones are divergence in economic growth, inflation and global public debt. As the chart below indicates, the sectors currently facing the largest inflationary pressures include transportation and food, whereas prices in the health sector remain stable.

As for demographic trends, according to a report in The Times newspaper last week there will be more Nigerians than Europeans in 60 years’ time. Some two-thirds of Africans are aged under-25 years (in Senegal the average age is 19 years) and many capitals and cities on the continent are unable to cope with this “youthquake”, with no time or money to build the basic infrastructure, often coupled with a high cost of living. While this youthful energy could be a good thing, the lack of opportunities – coupled with climate migration – is driving many of the younger generation to leave Africa, with Europe becoming a spill over zone.

Nicholas Hall Writes: “Many of these new consumers will rapidly become empowered, and although it is not a factor that will influence next year’s P&L, sensible companies will start to plan for much larger immigrant communities, which will have very determined views on the CHC products they buy (and anyone who doubts this has only to take a look at the very specialised products sold to the Hispanic community in North America by companies like Genomma). Indeed, some of these populations will be made up of ‘illegals’, who will not sign up to see community physicians and for whom CHC will be primary care and possibly much more. And for that, I fear, we are not at all prepared as countries or an industry.“

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