Macro Trends: Economic & Demographic Outlook

In this week’s blog, we look at two recent reports on macro trends that will have a future impact on the consumer healthcare market. The first looks at short-term economic trends and the second longer-term demographic trends.

Last week the International Monetary Fund has revised down its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 to slightly below its July 2021 forecast of 6%. At a virtual G20 event, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said: “The most immediate obstacle is the ‘great vaccination divide’ – too many countries with too little access to vaccines, leaving too many people unprotected. At the same time, countries remain deeply divided in their ability to respond – in being able to support the recovery, and in their ability to invest for the future.”

“We face a global recovery that remains ‘hobbled’ by the pandemic and its impact. We are unable to walk forward properly — it is like walking with stones in our shoes.” Three of the most painful stones are divergence in economic growth, inflation and global public debt. As the chart below indicates, the sectors currently facing the largest inflationary pressures include transportation and food, whereas prices in the health sector remain stable.

As for demographic trends, according to a report in The Times newspaper last week there will be more Nigerians than Europeans in 60 years’ time. Some two-thirds of Africans are aged under-25 years (in Senegal the average age is 19 years) and many capitals and cities on the continent are unable to cope with this “youthquake”, with no time or money to build the basic infrastructure, often coupled with a high cost of living. While this youthful energy could be a good thing, the lack of opportunities – coupled with climate migration – is driving many of the younger generation to leave Africa, with Europe becoming a spill over zone.

Nicholas Hall Writes: “Many of these new consumers will rapidly become empowered, and although it is not a factor that will influence next year’s P&L, sensible companies will start to plan for much larger immigrant communities, which will have very determined views on the CHC products they buy (and anyone who doubts this has only to take a look at the very specialised products sold to the Hispanic community in North America by companies like Genomma). Indeed, some of these populations will be made up of ‘illegals’, who will not sign up to see community physicians and for whom CHC will be primary care and possibly much more. And for that, I fear, we are not at all prepared as countries or an industry.

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