ALIBABA IDENTIFIES E-COMMERCE TRENDS FOR 2024

According to research compiled by Alibaba Group, the five e-commerce trends to watch in 2024 are:

• Rebooting chatbots AI provides opportunities for brands to offer consumers a more tailored shopping experience and marketers / retailers must continue to experiment with this technology in 2024 to improve the experience
• Green credentials Consumers are looking for information from retailers about how they can make environmentally-friendly purchases online and “merchants and marketplaces are stepping up their efforts on green labelling and certification”
• China recalibrates Economic headwinds dampened optimism about the recovery of China’s economy in 2023 but the long-term outlook is positive “and China’s economy is steadily becoming more consumption-driven”
• Shift to thrift Economic uncertainty and rising living costs are prompting “value hackers” to “cut expenditure without compromising on quality”
• Surprise & delight After several turbulent years, shoppers are seeking light relief and will respond well to brands that bring fun to the purchasing process (e.g. via live-streaming and short videos on mobile devices)

Nicholas Hall Writes: Once the most valuable company in Asia, Alibaba has been overtaken in market capitalisation by its Chinese rival PDD Holdings and its stock is 75% off its peak three years ago as a result of regulatory scrapes, uncertain strategy and staff demoralisation. Jack Ma, who founded the business, has issued a wake-up call and let’s hope the latest reorganisation turns this vital business around.

But what has become clear in the past 20-30 years is that we are still at an early stage when it comes to determining the impact of digital on consumer sales and marketing. We are certainly not at “The End of History” as we were promised by Francis Fukuyama in his famous 1992 book, nor have we reached Nirvana in terms of the triumph of capitalist liberal democracy. In a world full of military dictators, who are shameless in the way they use their power, there is a whole alternative theory both politically and economically. As I’ve commented in these columns and in New Paradigms, I would regret — but fully understand — the deglobalisation of industry, including our own, with many companies bringing home outsourced production in a process known as reshoring.

My next trip to Asia is tentatively planned for the end of February, and I’m looking forward to getting back to a favourite region and to find some pulses where I can place my finger.

Nicholas examines China in a dedicated focus chapter in his recently published signature New Paradigms report! Readers can also explore trends around health through digestion, cannabis and competition, among others, and their impact on CHC. Contact us for a white paper detailing Nicholas’ Strategic Narrative, which provides a blueprint to navigating the CHC Industry in 2024 and beyond. To purchase your copy, or to find out more about optional add-on presentations and quarterly updates, please get in touch with melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com.

Bumps in the road for China’s e-Commerce market

China’s e-Commerce market has grown strongly in recent years, but the sector is now navigating more difficult times, with the following developments all reported recently:

• Shares in online platforms such as Alibaba Health and JD Health fell last week following a report in 21st Century Business Herald that the government could ban 3rd-party platforms from selling medicines on the internet. Regulators will reportedly clarify the definition of 3rd-party platforms, which was mentioned in a regulatory proposal last month
• The National Radio & TV Administration and Ministry of Tourism & Culture released new rules on live-streaming events, including the requirement for influencers who discuss topics such as medicine to have relevant qualifications. Live-streaming events have become a prominent promotional tool for CHC marketers, especially during lockdowns when other forms of A+P such as outdoor events and in-store activities have been limited
• JD.com reported growth of 10.3% during this month’s 618 shopping festival (vs the same event in 2021) and sales of RMB379bn (US$57bn); this is JD’s slowest growth rate for 618, which was launched in 2004, and down from the 27.7% upturn reported in 2021. This follows Alibaba reporting its slowest Singles Day growth in November 2021 since the event began in 2009

Source: www.hicom-asia.com

Nicholas Hall’s Touchpoints: Last week we wrote that e-Commerce is essential for the new Haleon, as indeed it is for almost all CHC players. But in our calculations, we have assumed the continued high growth of China’s e-Commerce sector. And yet, the top players like Alibaba (owner of Taobao.com) and JD have been sending out SOS signals, warning of a rapid slowdown of growth, partly I suspect because they are coming increasingly under the thumb of the Government, from whose lofty perch the success or decline of e-Commerce is of very little import.

Now my colleague Nicola Allan, the CHC Insight Asia-Pacific Senior Editor, has reminded me that despite these negative stories, China’s e-Commerce channel is outperforming physical retail, as continued lockdowns drive consumers to shop online. So in one sense perhaps we don’t need to be overly concerned; on the other hand, perhaps we are wise to introduce a note of skepticism into our view of e-Commerce prospects.

According to our latest DB6 forecasts, which were constructed with great rigour only a few weeks ago, the global CHC e-Commerce market in 2031 will be worth US$97.7bn at MSP. But 249% growth between 2021-2031 is heavily dependent on China, which is slated to grow by 333%, and whose share of global is expected to increase from 34% in 2021 to 42% in 2031. Without China, e-Commerce is still a tearaway success with a forecast 205%  growth rate, but will not be in the same league.

The agenda for our Asia-Pacific e-Conference on 23rd November will be released next week! Register with elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com to take a look at the first line-up of participants who will explore expanding possibilities in CHC across the region. Our Regional CHC Creative Marketing Award will also be presented during this event.

Digital strategy: Examples from China

In Sanofi’s recent Q3 earnings call, new head of Consumer Healthcare Julie Van Ongevalle said the company’s CH operation had “untapped potential”, and that her previous experience in the beauty industry would help with the strategy of leveraging consumer insights and maximising the digital and e-Commerce channel. In this week’s blog, we summarise three examples of innovative digital strategies by three companies (Alibaba, GSK and Bayer) operating in China.

Alibaba has kicked off its 11.11 Global Shopping Festival with new features to meet rapidly-changing consumer needs. These include the participation of Alipay’s digital lifestyle platform, broader consumer reach, as well as livestreaming technology creating more engagement for Chinese consumers, and with the largest international presence to date. A new sales window will be added from 1st-3rd November, ahead of the main event on 11th November, to provide merchants – specifically new brands and small businesses – the opportunity to showcase their products and tell their brand stories amid the pandemic. For many brands, 11.11 is the single biggest growth driver. This year, more than 2mn new products will be introduced, double the amount compared to last year.

OTC marketers are also building ties with local digital shopping platforms in China. GSK CH and Dingdang Kuaiyao have agreed a new strategic co-operation, which will utilise their R&D and data capabilities to drive growth and improve consumer access to healthcare products. Initially, the companies will focus on the concept of “Internet + Medicine” and work together to build brands and content, as well as consumer traffic and experiences. In 2021, the collaboration will cover brand awareness, global marketing, consumer trust and consumption scenarios. The news comes a month after GSK CH became an Alibaba “digital captain” after agreeing a joint business plan with its marketing technology platform, Alimama.

In addition, under a strategic co-operation agreement with digital shopping platform Meituan, Bayer CH aims to become a full-service healthcare solutions provider to help individuals better manage their own health. The businesses will work with 20+ chain pharmacies to integrate online and offline healthcare products and services by exploring digitalisation options, expanding consumer services and developing a new era of pharmaceutical retail. The co-operation aims to reach consumers more efficiently under the “new normal”, which has resulted in growing public awareness of healthcare issues, rising demand for healthcare products and a change in consumption habits, with online purchasing increasing significantly.

We are pleased to announce the next round of savings in our special Q4 promotional event, running until the end of the year! Plus, for November only we are offering a 25% discount on annual subscription rates for our combined CHC.Newsflash and CHC.NewDirections news service! If you would like additional information on any of our publications or subscriptions, or would like to place an order, please contact Melissa.Lee@NicholasHall.com

Focus on China: Trade agreement with USA imminent?

Some welcome news for the global economy which broke over the weekend, as announced by the US trade representative, is that the US and China are “close to finalising some sections” of an interim agreement to ease trade tensions between the two countries. This is also a welcome development for OTC marketers, including RB, whose newly-appointed CEO Laxman Narasimhan recently stated that the company’s disappointing Q3 performance was primarily due to issues in USA and China.

Growth in China’s OTC market slowed to 5.3% in the MAT Q2 2019 period, owing to a low key cough & cold season and a weakening economy. Nicholas Hall was a speaker at the Global Self-Care Federation (GCSF) conference – a joint meeting of the Chinese, Asian and global CHC associations, held in Beijing last week – and wrote: “It is always valuable to come to the second-largest CHC market, which in just a few years will be the world’s biggest economy. There are major opportunities here, but increasing challenges too as the Government takes a tougher line on pricing and distribution, without easing the regulatory barriers.”

Judy Stenmark kicked off proceedings at the GSCF 2019 conference

Nicholas Hall also wrote that: “Among the many presentations during the 2 days, some of which lasted for as little as 15 minutes – this was truly a conveyor belt conference, with only one panel discussion and no questions from the floor – a presentation that stood out for me was from Conba, a company about which I knew very little. Hu Jiqiang, Chairman of Conba Group, made the startling claim that Conba will become the biggest producer of medical cannabis in China and possibly the world … And, of course, the presentation by Alibaba Health was one to sit up and listen to at the end of an exhausting two days. This really is a game-changing company as I discuss in my New Paradigms report.“

The rise of Chinese marketers within the global OTC rankings has been a notable trend in 2019. Our latest MAT Q2 2019 data shows that China Resources 999 now takes 9th position globally, and grew by 7.3% in the year to end-June 2019. Additionally, as explored in one of our recent blog posts, By-Health has broken into the global Top 20 and now claims 15th spot. This company has bucked the trend of decelerating growth in China, with sales growing by 31% in MAT Q2 2019. China accounts for over 90% of By-Health’s OTC portfolio turnover, with Australia accounting for the remainder.

Some of the latest innovations and technologies impacting CHC will be at the forefront of the agenda at next month’s OTC.NewDirections Executive Conference, which will take place in London on 14 November, with speakers from key players including Mundipharma, J&J and Bayer. Please contact jennifer.odonnell@NicholasHall.com to book your place or find out more. If you are unable to join us, you can always view Nicholas’ opening address live at 09:05 GMT here

Alibaba and Walmart report strong Q2

Our blog this week rounds up the latest retail news, including recent Q2 results from Walmart and Alibaba, and a focus on M&A activity in Asia-Pacific. China’s Alibaba trumped analysts’ expectations with a 42% year-on-year jump in quarterly revenues to Rmb114.92bn (US$16.3bn), contrasting with its rival Tencent which one day earlier disappointed the market by falling short with a more modest quarterly growth (though Tencent did report a 26% year-on-year increase in profit).

Alibaba’s CEO, Daniel Zhang, said the company “had a great quarter, expanding our user base to 674mn annual active consumers, and demonstrating our superior user experience. We will continue to expand our customer base, increase operating efficiency and deliver robust growth. With strong cashflow from our core e-commerce business, we will continue to invest in technology and bring digital transformation to millions of businesses globally.” 

Alibaba is also reportedly looking to acquire Kaola’s cross-border online shopping platform from rival NetEase, according to two people familiar with the matter, as China’s highly competitive US$2tn e-commerce market takes early steps towards consolidation.  

Meanwhile, Walmart has raised its outlook for the USA and said US consumers were in “solid” financial health as it shrugged off the Trump administration’s trade war with Beijing and turmoil elsewhere in bricks-and-mortar retail. Walmart revenues rose by 1.8% in fiscal Q2 2020 to US$130bn (+2.9% on a constant currency basis). USA sales were US$85.2bn (+2.9%) and the retailer noted that it is gaining market share in key categories, including health & wellness; e-commerce sales grew by 37%. International sales fell by 1.1% to US$29.1bn (+3.3% excluding currency impacts). Strength in Mexican subsidiary Walmex and China were offset by softness in UK and Canada. 

In Brazil, No.1 drugstore chain RaiaDrogasil (RD) reported better than expected results, seeing its national share rise to 13% in Q2 2019 (up 1.6% vs Q2 2018). Another drugstore chain quickly gaining share in Brazil is Farmarcas, which looks set to become the No.4 ranked chain by end-2019 after reporting even stronger results than RD, putting pressure on established players Drogaria DPSP and Pague Menos.

As for M&A activity:

• In Japan, drugstore operator Cocokara Fine is pursuing a merger with rival Matsumotokiyoshi in a deal that could create a market leader with sales of around ¥1tn (US$9.4bn)

• Amazon, which is looking to boost its bricks & mortar presence in the fast-growing Indian market, is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire up to 10% of Future Retail, the country’s No.2 retailer

• AS Watson (an affiliate of CK Hutchison Holdings) is in talks with potential partners in UAE with a view to introducing its health & beauty stores there

Take a look at the evolution of Pharmacy and Pharmacy Point-of-Care in the Distribution chapter in our new report, Nicholas Hall’s New Paradigms for CHC 2019: Over the Horizon, written by Nicholas himself! Other chapters will include Healthcare Trends, Regulation, Digital engagement amongst many others. Nicholas will also unveil the 15 “Infinity Zones” he has identified as being crucial to the future growth of the industry. You can upgrade your purchase to include a customised in-house presentation or webinar with Nicholas for an additional GB£10,000. To find out more or to pre-order your copy, please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com.

eCommerce expansion led by Amazon limits store-based growth

Continuing our series of blogs on the 10 Infinity Zones for future CHC growth outlined by Nicholas Hall, in this edition we take a closer look at eCommerce, following the news that Amazon has become the world’s most valuable brand, according to the 2019 BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands ranking released by WPP and Kantar.

Commenting on the latest DB6 MAT Q1 2019 figures, which show that global bricks & mortar OTC growth decelerated to 3.7%, Nicholas Hall said that “Amazon goes from strength to strength, and takes a 75-90% share of all eCommerce sales of CHC products, depending on whom you listen to. These are the glory days for the so-called GAFAA companies (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Alibaba), but will it last?“

The rise of eCommerce is one of the factors causing the slowdown in store-based OTC sales, which now total US$136.7bn. According to Celine Waller, VP, DB6, store-based sales account for 78% of the global OTC market, with direct sales generating 14%. Internet & mail order currently accounts for 9% of the “all channel” universe, with sales dominated heavily by VMS supplements in China and USA.

However, this channel has seen a CAGR of 20% since 2014 and will continue to increase dramatically in importance over the next decade. In China, Alibaba continues to prosper from the Chinese government’s attempts to promote eCommerce and regulate the so-called suitcase trade (daigou), while Amazon remains supreme in the US market.

To help keep our clients abreast of these changes, this year we have introduced an “all channels” version of the DB6 dataset, which reports on topline sales of direct sales (MLM), Internet & mail order plus key brands in selected leading markets. eCommerce will also be one of the key topics in our upcoming report, Nicholas Hall’s New Paradigms for CHC 2019: Over the Horizon, written by Nicholas himself! Examine each aspect of the CHC industry in 20 chapters, with a focus on major issues including Regulation, Pharmacy Point-of-Care, M&A, Switch and much more. Nicholas will also unveil the “infinity zones” he has identified as being crucial to the future growth of the industry. In addition to this, you can upgrade your purchase to include a customised in-house presentation or webinar with Nicholas for an additional GB£10,000. To find out more or to place your order, please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com.

Big Data to democratise healthcare

Another of the Infinity Zones that Nicholas Hall will be exploring in his upcoming New Paradigms report is Big Data. Healthcare is an increasing focus of the global Big 5 tech companies, namely Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Alibaba (with the latter predicted to be the “biggest of all in future” by Nicholas). All of these companies own vast reservoirs of consumer information (“big data”) that can be leveraged to provide targeted advertising and services.

In an interview with CNBC in early 2019, Apple’s CEO Tim Cook said that health will be the company’s “greatest contribution to mankind” and indicated that various services would be rolled out later this year, building on the success of the new ECG-enabled Apple Watch. Over the weekend, it was revealed that Apple has acquired Tueo Health, a California startup developing a smartphone app that works with sensors to detect asthma-related issues in sleeping children and alert the parents or guardians.

How the Tueo Health app works

In recent years, Apple has also acquired Gliimpse, a startup developing technology to aggregate medical records, and Beddit, a sleep sensor company. Apple sees its mission as “democratising” healthcare by putting its big data in the hands of consumers and empowering individuals to manage their own health via apps and dashboards. Apple’s vast user base gives it an advantage over its tech rivals, and the expected launch of its own medical devices (i.e. hearing aids) and services (i.e. blood glucose monitoring) will expand its healthcare appeal further.

As Nicholas points out, however, privacy concerns continue to plague big data initiatives and European authorities in particular have issued various fines to tech companies for breaching strict new data privacy laws (GDPR). The need for tech companies to process our personal information with ever more sensitivity will become even greater once they have access to healthcare metrics such as our blood pressure, sleep patterns, etc.

Big Data will be one of the key topics in our upcoming report, Nicholas Hall’s New Paradigms for CHC 2019: Over the Horizon, written by Nicholas himself! Examine each aspect of the CHC industry in 20 chapters, with a focus on major issues including Regulation, Pharmacy Point-of-Care, M&A, Switch and much more. Nicholas will also unveil the “infinity zones” he has identified as being crucial to the future growth of the industry. In addition to this, you can upgrade your purchase to include a customised in-house presentation or webinar with Nicholas for an additional GB£10,000. To find out more or to place your order, please contact melissa.lee@NicholasHall.com.

Alibaba buys in to “digital silk road” vision

According to a report in the FT over the weekend, Chinese e-commerce retailer Alibaba is close to agreeing a deal with Russian internet company, Mail.ru, and sovereign wealth fund, Russian Direct Investment Fund, to form a joint-venture e-commerce company.

As highlighted in our earlier blog on Chinese investment in Africa, there is a clear vision from China and Chinese companies to invest in the physical infrastructure for a new silk road (Beijing’s Belt & Road Initiative) connecting Asia, the Middle East and Europe, and this latest news on a China-Russia e-commerce tie-up underlines the appetite for a digital silk road too.

In October 2017, the Russian Government approved a Ministry of Health bill to allow the online purchase and home delivery of OTCs, which came into force in January 2018. As a result, Mail.ru announced the launch of its online pharmacy in April 2018. At present, established western e-commerce giants like Amazon are largely absent from Russia, giving Alibaba the freedom to chart new territory in a market of 147mn consumers at an opportune time.

As the FT article points out, Alibaba is also fighting back against Amazon in certain markets, like Indonesia, where the US retail giant has stolen a march. For example, Alibaba has invested heavily in two e-commerce companies, Tokopedia and Lazada, both of which market goods, including healthcare products, across southeast Asia.

Explore the digital landscape at Nicholas Hall’s upcoming OTC.NewDirections Executive Conference. Other topics on the agenda include Medical Device Regulations, Medical Cannabis, Switch and Smart Probiotics. This will be an inspiring day on 12 September in London, focusing on Where Innovation Meets Regulation. For details of the full agenda or to reserve your place contact elizabeth.bernos@NicholasHall.com

OTCs in Action Episode 15: E-Commerce excitement in China

Online purchases of OTCs in China are in action, according to James Fan, CEO, JOWIN China Group and Nicholas Hall’s Network Partner.

In 2014, Alibaba issued the world’s largest IPO (raising funds of US$25bn), increased its investment in its pharma dispensing e-business and aggressively developed 
its online healthcare shopping arm. It also supported many cloud-based health projects and encouraged traditional distributors to develop their online businesses.

“Double-digit growth of OTCs online and a rise of 20% among big brand nutritionals and cosmeceuticals proves that Chinese consumers are convinced by e-healthcare product providers. Tmall – operated by Alibaba – reported the Top 3 brands purchased on its site last year were Dong-e E-Jiao (Dong-e E-Jiao Group), Caltrate-D (Pfizer) and Fupai E-Jiao (Shandong Fujiao), which grew on average by more than 30% vs 2013. All three products have numerous line extensions that meet a range of daily healthcare needs. Regulations are set to allow the online prescription market to open up, too. Meanwhile, we believe the next digital healthcare hotspot in China will be at-home devices that can be used alongside online and mobile technology.